Saxo Spotlight: What’s on the radar for investors & traders this week?

Saxo Spotlight: What’s on the radar for investors & traders this week?

APAC Research

Summary:  U.S. regulators moved to calm markets by backstopping depositors in full. The Fed’s monetary policy has been complicated and market expectations swung from a faster pace back to downshifts and earlier pause as the crisis of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank unfolded. Investors’ number one focus this week will be whether the U.S. regulators succeed in calming down the markets’ concern about the U.S. banking system and avoiding systemic risks. The US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, while being important, may take a back seat in terms of market focus. China will monitor the retail sales data coming out from China this Wednesday to gauge the strength of the Chinese economic recovery.

SVB contagion limited by authorities, but risks could remain

As risks of a contagion from the US bank SVB’s collapse rose last week, authorities have stepped in to contain the risks and prevent a broader impact on the financial sector. Equity futures have responded positively to the news of a backstop funding, but Treasury yields continued to slide and the US dollar weakness also extended further. The headlines around this will continue to be key to watch this week as there may be lingering fears for depositors for not just the SVB but also more broadly in the US banking sector. President Biden’s address on Monday morning will be key to watch.

The development has also complicated the Fed’s monetary policy outlook further, and March rate hike expectations have reversed back from 50bps to now 25bps again with calls for a pause also gaining traction and financial stability concerns arise. However, the Fed’s response to the situation asserts that financial risks remain under control, while the inflation risks may continue to be an issue, suggesting potential yield curve bull steepening. 

Investors should remain on guard after the SVB fallout spread to Signature Bank. Market to search for concentration risk clues

We all know the US’ 16th largest bank, SVB, on Friday was taken over by the FDIC. Then regulators took control of another bank, Signature Bank. We know the Fed offered an emergency bank term funding program, to SVB depositors, so they can access money from Monday, while authorities suggest Signature Bank depositors would also be supported. This is not only the biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, but also, risk still remains. Now investors and option holders may be forced to take risk off the table for those assets that are embroiled in the saga.

Secondly - it’s really vital to consider the ripple effects of the banking fallout. With Continuous Disclosure obligations for listed companies, we expect companies involved with SVB or Signature bank to disclose their exposure and or relationship over the coming days. This has already started to occur in Australia- with companies on the ASX such as Xero (XRO) revealing they have a 1% of their cash and cash equivalents with SVB.

Thirdly – consider the market will be searching for opportunity to de risk – perhaps selling out of firms that are prone to concentration risk or could potentially be under financial duress. That may include financial institutions that have concentrated (not diversified) client's books and revenue streams. Or those companies that have lent money to high-risk technology companies or starts ups. For the investor, it could be worth considering reviewing your portfolio, to ensure the company’s asset quality and clientele are not at risk.

Upside in US CPI is also unlikely to make Fed go for 50bps in March

US inflation has been the talk of town for several months now, although the focus has lately turned to financial contagion risks that may stop the Fed from switching back to a higher rate hike path trajectory. Still, February CPI – due to be released on Tuesday – will be a big test after last month’s print reversed the disinflation narrative that the markets had started to accept, and continued to point at sticky services inflation. Headline consumer prices are expected to rise +0.4% MoM in February, cooling slightly vs the +0.5% in January, with the annual rate seen easing to 6.0% YoY from 6.4% previously. Core CPI is expected to rise +0.4% MoM in February, matching the January pace, though the annual rate is likely to fall to 5.5% YoY from 5.6% in January. Overall message is likely to remain that inflation remains stubbornly high, especially after tough weather conditions in California, but the risk of a 50bps rate hike from the Fed in March remains low as the central bank becomes wary of “something breaking”.

Other US data of note this week includes PPI and retail sales for February, both of which are expected to show a modest cooling but still remain high. Consensus expectations are for February producer prices to rise by +0.3% MoM (prev. +0.7%) or 5.4% YoY (prev. 6.0%). Retail sales are expected to cool from January jump of 3.0% MoM on warmer weather and expected to come in cooler at +0.2% MoM. If the January outperformance in US data is not repeated, and the contagion fears continue, we could see Fed expectations being pulled back significantly this week as the market is in panic mode.

China retail sales are expected to bounce strongly

China is scheduled to release retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment this Wednesday. Investors will focus on the retail sales data for a gauge of the strength of the recovery of consumption after the economy reopened. Consensus estimates expects retail sales to bounce strongly to a growth of year-on-year growth of 3.5% in the first two months of the year, after declining 0.2% in January. Industrial production is expected to come in at +2.5% Y/Y year-to-date.

European Central Bank to go for another 50bps rate hike this week

The ECB is still expected to hike the deposit rate by 50bps to 3.0% at the March 16 announcement, given what was said in the February meeting and recent commentaries. Focus will be on the guidance for the path of interest rates from here, as well as on the comments around the risks of a financial contagion spreading from the SVB collapse. Recent data such as an upside surprise in core inflation has prompted ECB pricing to shift to a terminal rate of 4% by July, suggesting a lot of room for give back if financial risks broaden. If the central banks stays away from guiding for another 50bps in May, that could come as a dovish surprise for markets. The latest inflation forecasts will also be key, with core inflation expectations likely to be revised higher for 2023 after strong reads in January and February.

UK budget on watch for growth and fiscal picture; jobs data key for BOE

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will be delivering the spring budget on March 15, which will be a key watch especially after the market turmoil in September when Hunt's predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng and former Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled lavish tax cuts roiling the markets. Expectations are for the Hunt to prioritize keeping public finances steady, announce less near-term borrowing but only a marginally improved medium-term fiscal outlook. Lower energy prices will also likely boost the short-term growth outlook, helping recession fears recede, although longer-term growth may remain marred with low labor force participation and weak productivity growth.

Before the focus turns to UK budget on Wednesday, the UK labor market data will be released on Tuesday and investors will be scrambling to gauge how much room does the BOE have to tighten further. Bloomberg consensus expects the unemployment rate to rise to 3.8% in the three months to January from 3.7% previously, with headline jobs growth likely to ease to 60k from 102k in January. However, even with a slightly softer jobs report, the BOE is expected to continue its hiking cycle in March as activity data has been stronger than expected, but the trend in labor market from here will be key to see where BOE could pause its tightening cycle. 

Australian pulse checks: business and consumer confidence and jobs numbers

Australia business and consumer confidence, numbers released on Tuesday will give a gauge of how the economy is feeling after the RBA made its 10th rate hike, with businesses and consumers likely to lean into the RBA’s comments that it could pause rate hikes soon. Later in the week on Thursday, the all-important unemployment rate will be released for February – with Bloomberg’s consensus suggesting the jobless rate will fall from 3.7 to 3.6%, with 50,000 jobs expected to be added last month. If the data shows employment is rising, contrary to what the RBA expects, then the Australian dollar would likely gain pace, as the RBA would gain power to keep rising rates by 0.25% for the next few months, with the market expecting hikes can made till September.

Macro data on watch this week:

Monday 13 March

  • India CPI (Feb)

Tuesday 14 March

  • US CPI & Core CPI (Feb)
  • U.K. Employment (Jan) & Payrolls (Feb)
  • Australian consumer and business confidence

Wednesday 15 March

  • US Retail sales (Feb)
  • US PPI & Core PPI (Feb)
  • Eurozone Industrial production (Jan)
  • UK Budget
  • Japan BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes (17-18 Jan)
  • China Retail sales, industrial production, & fixed asset investment (Feb)

Thursday 16 March

  • US Housing starts & building permits (Feb)
  • US Initial jobless claims
  • Australian employment data – jobless rate (Feb)
  • ECB policy rate decision
  • Japan exports (Feb)
  • Japan Machinery orders (Jan)

Friday 17 March

  • US Industrial production (Feb)
  • US university of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Feb)
  • UK BoE/Ipsos Inflation next 12 months (Feb)
  • Japan Tertiary industry activity (Jan)


Earnings on watch this week:

  • Tuesday: Volkswagen, Lennar, Foxconn
  • Wednesday: Adobe, Constellation Software, BMW, E.ON, Ping An Insurance, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc
  • Thursday: FedEx, Dollar General, Enel, Li Ning
  • Friday: Vonovia, Longfor, CMOC Group Lt


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.