Macro Dragon: VP Debate = Slight Net-Positive to Reps...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: VP Debate = Slight Net-Positive to Reps...
Top of Mind…
- Touched on this wk in the Dragon’s New Month = New & Final Quarter = New POTUS piece
VP Debate - Overall Conclusion:
- That was an actual debate. Who would have thought!
- Both VPs are way more presidential than their bosses
- Both sides had good & generally well-articulated points, yet also generally did a good enough job of rebutting or diluting the jabs of one another – there were no killing blows landed
- Was surprised at how much Pence dominated the discussion, talking over his allocated times for the vast majority of the debate, interrupting Harris, ignoring the moderator, etc... If you watch the entire debate this is a clear negative, yet you have to take a step back & think most people are not going to watch the entire debate, so there is a greater chance of folks catching Pence having more air-time being assertive, than Harris, who was also strong & assertive
- Had expected Harris to be by far the more dominant one & not sure if this was a strategy on the Dems part... she did seem to keep herself in check. And one has to wonder if maybe the Reps wanted to goad her to snap & potentially play up Trumps’ “Nasty” tag for her
- Moderator was definitely weaker this time around, it’s a tough gig - yet the candidates, especial Pence, walked over her throughout the entire debate
- Pence was very good at sticking to points he wanted to address, even when the moderator was moving onto the next topics - he on a number of occasions went back to a previous point from Harris
- So net-net, it was pretty even - yet likely a victory for the Republicans... i.e. the bar was low for Pence & high for Harris. Yes, a tie in the real world, can actually be a win or loss to someone. Its about expectations going into the event, the actual event & the potential change in future expectations coming out of an event.
- Great to still see a general level of civility, coherence & ability to agree to disagree
- Star of the show was the big fly that landed on Mike Pence's hair
- Still amazed, they don't just mute the mics...
- No material changes to markets, like the cross-asset correlated moves that we had post the Biden / Trump talk last wk
- Oct 15 & Oct 22: Whilst in theory there are two presidential debates left, in practice they may not all occur or may both be scrapped. It’s worth noting they are not a constitutional requirement
- Link to the VP Debate from C-Span (so no pesky commentary from those CNN & FOX folks)
Not picked up enough of what KVP is putting down?
- From c. 52min in KVP talking on DollarYen on Bloomberg’s Daybreak This will resonate with the 4Q20 piece, where a high conviction structural trade view from KVP’s camp is being short DollarYen, seeing 85 – 95 range by back-end of 2021 & potentially 100 to high 90s by end of 2020. Naturally this gels with the multi-year dollar bearish regime view
- Interestingly enough, in the near-term we are seeing DollarYen break higher… with still a few wks to go into the election
- Have already flagged this great podcast, & guess who he is interviewing Insert: Human before from a friend, mentor, great soul & clear independent brilliant thinker Chris Colbert – do please check it out, if it makes you think, please follow plus leave a 5-star review
Dragon's Must Reads...
- John Hardy dropping a roadmap US Election Primer: The Final Sprint to November 3rd
We sort through important dates in this final sprint phase of the absurdly long US presidential election cycle. Historically, we have seen significant shifts in the polling in the final weeks leading up to the election. As well, we consider factors that can change the odds between now and Election Day on November 3rd.
- Saxo’s US Election Cheat Sheet Which cuts into the three potential pathways into the elections, probabilities around them, as well as short & long-term positions across equities, bonds, commodities & currencies.
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea
This is the wayKVP
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.