Key Stories from the past week: A week of new highs

Key Stories from the past week: A week of new highs

Macro
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo

Crypto bulls celebrated this week as Bitcoin breached $100,000. Wednesday saw record highs from all three of the major US indices. In terms of economic data, it was all about the labour market in the US with JOLTS, ADP, Jobless claims and NFP painting the picture. Political wobbles in South Korea and France drew some attention. The KOSPI trimming a couple of percent while the CAC40 ticked up indicating the uncertainty there was largely priced in. In commodities, OPEC+ delayed the production hike for the third time creating some price action and investor interest. More below on this week’s key stories.


Milestone level - $100,000
On Thursday, Bitcoin rallied sharply to breach the USD 100k price level for the first time, and even peaked as high as USD 104,278 in the minutes that followed. The sudden surge seemed to arrive on the back of more crypto-friendly administration picks by US President-elect Donald Trump & FED chair Powell’s rhetoric on Bitcoin which seemed to add some sense of legitimacy. Bitcoin is trading up +130% YTD which far outpaces the impressive 28% YTD from S&P 500. Saxo clients remain primarily long (90%) with slightly less long positions WoW which could indicate some profit-taking.
Theme Basket: Crypto & Blockchain 

Jobs data, jobs data, and more jobs data
Traders looked to US labour market metrics this week to help shape expectations for the December FOMC meeting. The data was mixed, and Powell gave little new guidance. ADP, JOLTS and NFP indicated resilience, whereas jobless claims came in higher than expected and the November unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. The market reaction focused on the concerns for labour weakness - USD and treasury yields came off on Friday. Odds on a December rate cut increased with Fed Fund Futures pricing ~90% chance of 25bps cut.
US November Nonfarm Payrolls

Positive earnings, positive price move
Salesforce reported Q3 results this week which showed an 8% increase in revenue to $9.44 billion beating market expectations. The stock rose 11%. Salesforce seems to be back on a grow path following a profit warning in June. The company is gradually incorporating AI technology into its customer management and marketing automation products and the Q4 outlook suggests that the financial momentum has room to further improve - supported by AI growth and free-cash-flow generation. Saxo Bank experienced a net increase in Salesforce positions over the week.
The Evolving AI Narrative


Investors will continue to watch US indices next week to see if the Santa rally can continue. Key data that will impact sentiment includes US CPI on Wednesday, ECB policy meeting on Thursday, and UK GDP numbers on Friday. On the earnings front, Oracle Corp and BHP kick things off on Monday, and meme stock followers may be interested in Gamestop which reports on Tuesday.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.