Global Market Quick Take: Europe – October 11 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – October 11 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – October 11 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – October 11 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  Equity futures trade steady following gains on Tuesday with fallout from Israel-Hamas war still contained and as more US Federal Reserve members dialed back the need for additional rate hikes, saying higher bond yields has done the job for them. Expectations of further China stimulus helped support strong gains across Asia, US bond yields steadied following big declines on Tuesday while the dollar traded near support, potentially signaling a period of consolidation following months of strong gains. Crude oil maintained its war-risk premium with gold being supported by lower bond yields. US PPI today ahead of Thursday’s US CPI print, the main macroeconomic event of the week.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: S&P 500 futures pushed above the 4,400 level intraday in yesterday’s session but came back below the level again closing at the 4,391 level. The Birkenstock IPO was priced in the middle of the price range at $46 per share raising $1.48bn. Trading in Birkenstock shares start today under the ticker symbol BIRK:xnys. PepsiCo earnings yesterday also showed that global consumption in soft drinks and snacks remain robust despite talk about negative impact from obesity drugs.

FX: The dollar DXY index pushed below the key 106 support amid Fed rhetoric aligning on higher bond yields substituting for a Fed rate hike, and the catchup in cash Treasuries to Monday’s slide in futures as geopolitical worries ramped up. Yen however stayed weak, and USDJPY trades close to 149 despite reports that BOJ could mull a 3% inflation target for current fiscal year. EURUSD trades above 1.06 to challenge the month-long downtrend. AUDUSD saw a fresh but so far not sustained move towards 0.6440 on improved sentiment and China’s expected stimulus announcement

Commodities: Crude oil prices were in consolidation on Tuesday as oil supply concerns have not materially ramped up, but risks of escalation continue to keep oil traders on edge. Monthly oil market reports from EIA today followed by OPEC and IEA on Thursday. Gas prices pushed up further amid Israel’s gas-field halt as well as a leak in a gas pipeline connecting NATO members Finland and Estonia. Gold prices also consolidated despite the plunge in Treasury yields and a weaker USD. Metals in focus today amid speculation of stimulus announcement from China.

Fixed income: Sovereign yield curves continue to bull-flatten as the Israel-Hamas war increases safe-haven demand. Although it is too early to understand the market extent of such conflict, it’s important to note that the events are unfolding on the back of weak bond sentiment. Yesterday's T-Bills and 3-year US Treasury auction send conflicting messages. Demand at the 3- and 6-months T-Bills auctions was strong on the back of Federal Reserve speakers who hinted that the Fed is done with hiking rates. Yet, the 3-year Treasury auction saw a slump in foreign demand with indirect buyers being awarded only 56% of the issue, the lowest since October 22 and far below last month’s 66.2%. Moreover, the auction tailed by 1.7bps, the biggest tail since February.  Today and tomorrow the focus is on the Treasury’s 10-year auction, and the 30-year bond sales coming after the CPI release. Overall, we remain defensive favouring the front part of the yield curve and quality.

Volatility: The VIX Index is remarkably relaxed about the tensions in the Middle East declining further yesterday to a close of 17.03, and in fact the S&P 500 three-month 25-delta skew has reached its lowest level in six months suggesting the market is positioning itself for an upside year-end rally.

Macro:  Kashkari (voter) and Bostic (2024 voter) joined other Fed members in striking a less hawkish tone while Waller (voter) stayed on the message of achieving 2% inflation while Daly also said that the Fed has more work to do. Fed whisperer Timiraos, in a WSJ piece, also said higher bond yields are likely to extend the Fed rate pause and officials are signaling that a run-up in long-term interest rates might substitute for a further central bank rate hike. US NFIB survey (Small Business Optimism) slipped to 90.8 from 91.2, coming in a notch below expectations (91.0). Updated IMF global forecasts showed little revision to its global growth outlook, with GDP projected to slow from 3.5% last year to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. Inflation is not expected to return to target to 2025 in most countries, underscoring the need of central banks to keep policy tight.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 rebound, strong resistance at 4,400. Nasdaq 100 closed on resistance at 15.131. DAX rebound, resistance at 15,482. EURUSD correction, testing resistance at 1.0617. GBPUSD testing 1.23. Dollar Index key support 105.34. Gold rebound, resistance at 1,870. Crude oil rebounded 0.382 retracement. US 10-year yields expect correction down to 4.56%

In the news: Higher Bond Yields Likely to Extend Fed Rate Pause (WSJ), Finland says 'outside activity' likely damaged gas pipeline, telecoms cable (Reuters), Elon Musk’s vision for free speech on X tested by Israel-Hamas war misinformation (FT), China Mulls New Stimulus, Higher Deficit to Meet Growth Goal (Bloomberg).

Macro events: US PPI (Sep) exp 0.3% MoM & 2.3% YoY versus 0.7% & 1.6% prior (1230 GMT), EIA’s October Short-term Energy Outlook (1600 GMT), FOMC Minutes from Sept 20 meeting.

Earnings events: Delta Air Lines reports Q3 earnings tomorrow (bef-mkt) with estimated revenue growth at 4% y/y and est. EPS growth of 34% y/y as travel remains strong.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.