Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 9 January 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 9 January 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 9 January 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 9 January 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  Wall Street rose on Monday before paring back a bit overnight with the Magnificent Seven stocks, led by a 6.4% jump in Nvidia once again taking the lead, and together with hopes for fresh monetary easing in China it helped drive the Nikkei 225 to a 34-year high in Asia today. The moves came after a NY Fed’s consumer survey saw inflation expectations dip across the forecast horizons. Apart from the tech rally, investors will be focusing on key inflation readings from the US and China later in the week. Crude oil dropped the most in a month on signs of physical market weakness with gold bouncing ahead of key support.

Saxo’s Q1 2024 Outlook titled “What happened to the future” is now out. You can read the executive summary here

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Fear of missing out (FOMO) was back in focus during Monday’s session with the S&P 500 adding 1.4% while the Nasdaq rose 2.1%. Gains being led by the Magnificent Seven, all of them gaining more than 1%, led by a 6.4% jump in Nvidia. Ahead of the CES 2024 consumer electronics show officially starting today, Nvidia announced three new graphics chips with extra components and enhanced AI features for PC users. Additionally, the AI chip giants said four Chinese EV manufacturers will use its technology in their auto-driving platforms.  Boeing plummeted 8.1% after US regulators ordered the grounding of over 170 Boeing 737 Max 9 jets after the accident over the weekend.

FX: The dollar index came under some pressure on Monday, and the DXY index tested 102 amid slowing consumer inflation expectations from the NY Fed survey. USDJPY fell to a 143.42 low on softer Treasury yields and Tokyo CPI reported this morning still showed core-core CPI remaining elevated. EURUSD attempted gains but was rejected at 1.0980, ahead of Friday’s whipsaw high at 1.10. GBPUSD however surged to highs of 1.2767, remaining just shy of Friday’s high at 1.2770 break of which is now needed to reaffirm a bullish bias. USDNOK rose to fresh high of 10.42 with the slump in oil prices weighing.

Commodities: Oil prices slump 4% on Monday, unwinding last week’s geo-political gains, as Saudi’s price cuts fuelled demand concerns. Speculators started 2024 by signalling a major bearish shift following the second largest weekly increase in short bets since 2017. For now, $70 in WTI and $75 in Brent seem to be offering some support with focus today on EIAs Short-term energy outlook Copper trades higher boosted by speculation of another China RRR cut. Gold meanwhile found support ahead of $2012, the 50-DMA and as well as 38.2% fibo retracement level.

Fixed income: The US Treasury is preparing for the first coupon auctions of the year. Today, 3-year notes will be sold, followed by 10-year and 30-year bonds tomorrow and Thursday. The focus will be on auctions’ bidding metrics ahead of Thursday’s CPI readings. The big question is whether duration continues to be appealing after the recent bond rally despite markets are priced to perfection reflecting the expectations of six rate cuts this year.

Macro: NY Fed's December consumer survey saw inflation expectations dip across the forecast horizons. One-year inflation expectations fell to 3% from 3.4% in November, the lowest since January 2021. Three-year inflation expectations fell to 2.6% from 3.0% and five-year inflation expectations fell to 2.5% from the prior month's 2.7%.  Fed's Bostic, a 2024 voter, said the current pace of balance sheet normalization is appropriate and the Fed remains in a situation of ample reserves. He repeated his view for two 25bp rate cuts this year, with the first occurring sometime in Q3. Japan’s Tokyo CPI for December showed some cooling from last month but remained well above target levels. Headline CPI cooled to 2.4% YoY from 2.7% last month while core CPI was at 2.1% from 2.3% YoY previously. Core core CPI remains a key concern as it was at 3.5% YoY for December from 3.6% previously. Data is broadly in-line with BOJ’s view that import-driven price pressures are cooling, and this would mean policy pivot will continue to be pushed forward.

Volatility: In yesterday's session, the markets displayed a striking resilience, with the VIX declining to $13.08 (-0.27 | -2.02%), a drop signaling easing fears. In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 surged, marking a robust start to the week with gains of 1.41% and 2.11%, respectively, closing at their highs—a bullish signal. Despite last week's downward trend, this shift indicates a market appetite for recovery, possibly eyeing all-time highs. Volatility indices like the VVIX and SKEW mirrored this sentiment, with the VVIX dipping slightly and the SKEW rising sharply. However, the overnight jump in VIX futures to $14.80 (+1.025 | +7.41%) suggests caution among traders, hinting that the climb might come with volatility. As we approach Thursday's pivotal CPI data release, the market's upward momentum could persist, albeit with an undercurrent of caution due to potential increases in volatility.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 likely resuming uptrend, could test previous peak, support at 4,682. Nasdaq 100 likely resuming uptrend could test 17K, support 16,166. DAX likely resuming uptrend support at 16,470. EURUSD bounced from 0.618 retracement and support at 1.0882, could rebound to 1.10. USDJPY failed to close above 144.95 could slide back to 142.85, 200 DMA giving support.  GBPUSD below rising trendline, support at 1.25, resistance at 1,28. Gold bouncing from 2,017 support, likely range bound 2,017- 2,065. Crude oil is struggling for upside momentum. 10-year Treasury yields rejected at 4.10 key resistance

In the news: Nvidia Rolls Out New Chips, Claims Leadership of AI PC Race (Bloomberg), China regulators lift stock net-selling ban for mutual funds due to redemption pressures on funds (Reuters), China Hints at More Easing With Possible Reserve Ratio Cut (Bloomberg)

Macro events (all times are GMT): US Trade Balance (Nov) exp –64.9b vs –64.3b prior (1230), EIA’s Short-term energy outlook (1600), API’s weekly crude and fuel stock report (2030), US government to sell $52b 3-year Notes

Earnings events: The first Q4 earnings report has begun with focus on major bank earnings this week

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.