Global Market Quick Take: Asia – October 31, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – October 31, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – October 31, 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – October 31, 2023

Macro 5 minutes to read
APAC Strategy Team

Summary:  Risk aversion was pared at the start of the new week with Israel’s ground operation in Gaza remaining cautious for now, and US equities rallied despite higher Treasury yields. Dollar was sold, with AUD outperforming as RBA rate hike remains in play. EURUSD moved above 1.06 and EZ GDP and CPI data will be on watch today. Big focus however on Bank of Japan with rising speculation around a policy tweak after a Nikkei report overnight saw USDJPY dip below 149.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

US Equities: Markets rebounded, driven by advances in mega-cap technology names. Amazon added 3.9%, and Microsoft gained 2.3%. The lower-than-expected Treasury borrowing estimates for Q4, GM's deal with the UAW to end strikes, and the diminishing fear of an escalation in the Middle East conflict boosted sentiment. McDonald's gained 1.7% after reporting revenue and earnings that beat estimates. Regarding earnings, all eyes are now on Apple's results scheduled for Thursday.

Fixed income: Treasuries started weak, with yields rising early in the session after Nikkei reported that the BoJ is considering allowing 10-year JGB yields to exceed 1%. The long end led the market to pare losses when the Treasury announced a lower estimate for its Q4 borrowing at $776 billion, which is below the consensus of $800 billion and the Treasury's July projection of $852 billion. The 2-year yield ended the day 5bps higher at 5.05%, and the 10-year yield climbed 6bps to 4.89%. All eyes are now on the FOMC meeting and the quarterly refunding announcement of 3, 10, and 30-year auction sizes, scheduled for Wednesday.

China/HK Equities: While the broader Hang Seng Index finished unchanged, strong gains in hardware technology stocks boosted the Hang Seng Tech Index, leading to a 1.3% increase. Xiaomi, Sunny Optical, and AAC Technologies surged by approximately 6%. On the other hand, Chinese banks saw a decline of 2-4% after reporting earnings that indicated a contraction in net interest margins. HSBC lost 1.5% following its earnings report, which included setting aside additional provisions for credit losses arising from commercial real estate lending in mainland China.

FX: Dollar was weaker amid a strong risk sentiment to start the week, but month-end flows could be key. AUD led the gains again on the G10 board, as AUDUSD rose to 0.6380 with RBA rate hike still in play. AUDNZD has also broken above 1.09 but 1.10 is key for upwards momentum. EURUSD rose above 1.06 despite both Spanish and German CPI coming in cooler than expected and focus will be on GDP and CPI data out today. GBPUSD also moved above 1.216. BOJ decision is key today and could have repercussions on global markets. USDJPY dropped 1 big figure to 148.80 on Nikkei report overnight, and now trades around 149.

Commodities: As Israel’s ground operation into Gaza remained more cautious that expected, oil markets unwound gains from Friday and both WTI and Brent were down over 3%. Lack of a serious regional impact led to war premium being erased, and central bank meetings from BoJ, Fed and BOE will be in focus this week. Gold also weakened after touching highs above $2000 as safe have bid retreated and US yields rose, but the decline was modest.


  • Germany slipped into contraction in Q3 with preliminary GDP data showing a decline of 0.1% QoQ, but better than -0.2% expected. October HICP slowed to 3.0% YoY from 4.3% a month earlier and 3.3% expected. Euro-are Q3 prelim GDP and October CPI on watch today.
  • A Nikkei report came out saying that the Bank of Japan is set to consider a further adjustment to its YCC framework at Tuesday's monetary policy meeting, potentially allowing 10-year Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1%.
  • BOJ Preview: There is growing speculation about a tweak from BOJ today, and markets are seemingly underpricing the risks of an early normalization. Markets have been increasingly testing the patience of BOJ with JGB yields edging close to 1% ceiling and USDJPY hovering above 150 last week. But simply raising the 10-year yield ceiling further from 1% may prove to be a costly and short-term fix, and may only bring modest gains for JPY. USDJPY could move towards 145, as upward pressure from USD strength and higher US yields remains. On the other hand, a complete removal of YCC and setting the stage to move from NIRP to ZIRP will be a gradual process and wage pressures will be key for that. The most effective hint for that could come from upward revision of FY2024 inflation forecast and that can bring more durable gains in yen. Biggest risk to yen is if BOJ maintains policy stance and keeps inflation update muted, with 150 not seen as line in the sand now, USDJPY could move towards 155 on such an outcome.

Macro events: BoJ Announcement and Outlook Report, Chinese Official PMIs (Oct) Manufacturing exp. 50.2 vs 50.2 prior and Services exp. 52.0 from 51.7 prior, EZ Flash CPI (Sep) Core exp. 4.2% YoY vs. 4.5% prior and GDP (Q3) exp 0.2% YoY vs. 0.5% prior, US Employment Cost Index (Q3) exp. 1.0% vs. 1.0% prior

Earnings: Pfizer, AMD, Amgen, Caterpillar

In the news:

  • Netanyahu Rules Out Cease-Fire (Bloomberg)
  • Treasury to borrow $776 billion in the final three months of the year (CNBC)
  • Oil prices could hit $150 if Israel-Hamas conflict intensifies, World Bank warns (FT)
  • US carworkers suspend strike after reaching tentative deal with GM (FT)
  • Tesla shares drop 5% on Panasonic battery warning, down 18% since Q3 earnings report (CNBC)
  • McDonald's gets lift from diners turning to cheaper menu, new launches (Reuters)
  • ON Semiconductor Stock Plummets After Offering Bleak Fourth-Quarter Outlook (WSJ)


For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.