Global Market Quick Take: Asia – November 28, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – November 28, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – November 28, 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – November 28, 2023

Macro 5 minutes to read
APAC Strategy Team

Summary:  Treasuries surged, driving the 10-year yield down by 8 bps to 4.39%. Softer US housing and manufacturing data, along with robust demand in the 2-year and 5-year auctions, contributed to the yield decline. US equities saw modest declines. Black Friday retail sales, as indicated by Mastercard data, exhibited an increase of 2.5% Y/Y. Affirm spiked 12% as buy-now-pay-later usage rose 19% YoY on Cyber Monday, per Adobe. The USDJPY extended its declines, falling below 148.50, while the AUDUSD made gains above the 0.66 handle.


The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

US Equities: In a quiet session, the S&P 500 slid 0.2% to 4,550 and the Nasdaq 100 ticked down 0.1% to 15,962. The real estate sector topped on performance amid falls in bond yields. Consumer discretionary advanced as Mastercard data showed a 2.5% Y/Y increase in retail sales during the Black Friday. Shopify gained 4.9%. Amazon added 0.7%, marking a new high since April last year. Affirm surged 12% as the usage of buy-now-pay-later spending increased by 19% Y/Y on Cyber Monday, according to data from Adobe.

Fixed income: Treasuries rallied strongly with the 10-year yield falling by 8bps to 4.39%. A large decline in German Bunds yields, softer US New Home Sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing index triggered the initial buying. The rally was sustained through the auctions of a total of $109 billion 2-year and 5-year notes which saw robust demand, in particular the 5-year action. On Tuesday, Treasury is scheduled to sell $39 billion 7-year notes. 

China/HK Equities: The Hang Seng Index retreated by 0.2%. Local Hong Kong developers as well as China developers declined. New World Development plummeted 6.4% to a 20-year low on fear of dividend cuts and an analyst downgrade. Longfor shed 4.1%. EV stocks showed weakness over price war concerns. Tech hardware outperformed, with AAC gaining 5% and Sunny Optical rising 2.7%. The CSI300 lost 0.7%, dragged down by communications, properties, and retailing. Meituan and PDD are reporting results on Tuesday.

FX: Dollar bearish sentiment continued to extend into the start of new week, but month-end corporate demand could bring some level of tactical support for the dollar. USDNOK closed below 200DMA at 10.66 and was seen extending the decline in the Asian morning with expectations of a Norges Bank rate hike supporting NOK. USDJPY seen extending declines to sub-148.50 in early Asian trading. NZDUSD moved above 200DMA around the 0.61 handle and AUDUSD also made strides above the 0.66 handle despite yuan being marginally weaker as China’s industrial profit growth disappointed. EURUSD struggling to push above 1.0960 resistance and GBPUSD also crawling slowly above 1.26 as month-end nears.  

Commodities: Crude oil unable to find a clear direction with the OPEC+ cuts in focus, while the Israel-Hamas war also extended its truce. Gold prices meanwhile managed to clear the October peak of $2010 barrier as it climbed to a six-month high amid lower yields and a weaker dollar. Our technical analyst sees the next barrier at $2039 but there is room up to previous peak of around $2070-78. Copper slipped on China’s industrial profit miss but supply issues continue to underpin.

Macro:

  • US new home sales for October fell 5.6% to 679k, beneath the expected 723k and the previous 719k.
  • China's industrial profit growth slowed in October to +2.7% Y/Y from +11.9% in the previous month. The material sector was the profit growth driver, rising 22.9%. Profits in the consumer goods manufacturing sector increased by 2.2% Y/Y in October. Industrial revenue improved to +2.5% in October from September’s +1.2%.
  • ECB president Lagarde said the ECB will ‘probably’ discuss the reinvestment of its near EUR 1.7tn PEPP holdings. She also told European lawmakers that the labor market shows signs of weakening.

Macro events: Australia Retail Sales (Oct) exp 0.1% MoM (prev. 0.9%), US Consumer Confidence (Nov) exp 101 (prev. 102.6)

Earnings: PDD, Intuit, Meituan, Workday, CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard, Café de Coral, L’Occitane

In the news:

  • Xi chairs Politburo meeting on Yangtze River Economic Belt development (Xinhua)
  • China’s Politburo holds monthly meeting but makes no mention of when the party’s much-anticipated plenum will take place; Xi underscores focus on growth with planned trip to Shanghai (SCMP)
  • Fast-Fashion Giant Shein Files to Go Public (WSJ)
  • Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza extended two days; 11 more hostages freed (Reuters)

 

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.


 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.