French Election Update : Is the Zemmour boom already over ? French Election Update : Is the Zemmour boom already over ? French Election Update : Is the Zemmour boom already over ?

French Election Update : Is the Zemmour boom already over ?

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  On 30 November, the far-right former TV pundit Eric Zemmour officially entered the race for France’s presidency. An Harris Interactive poll released before his announcement shows he is losing momentum. In recent months he was in second or third position depending on the polls. Now, he is in fourth position, behind President Macron Emmanuel Macron, far-right leader Marine Le Pen and former Sarkozy minister Xavier Bertrand. Zemmour’s fall is partially explained by a number of controversies and the lack of economic program. Is the Zemmour boom already over ?

French Election Preview published: We have recently published our preview for the 2022 April presidential election. It gives a broad overview of the current state of French politics and the main reforms which are currently put forward by the lead candidates. See here for the full report.

The message of the polls: In an Harris Interactive poll released on 30 November, Macron is still miles ahead of the pack, at 23%. This is lower than in previous polls. But he is still in a very favorable position. His popularity remains high. He has a strong electoral base. Marine Le Pen has successfully relaunched her campaign. In recent weeks, she focused on immigration to mobilize her electoral base. She is at 19% of voting intentions in the first round (+3 points compared with the previous Harris Interactive poll). The centre-right candidate Bertrand is stable at 14%. The big surprise is Zemmour’s fall, at 13% (-3 points). The poll was released before he formally announced run for president. But we doubt this will change anything. Is the Zemmour boom already over ? This is too early to say. The decrease in support is partially explained by a number of controversies (he used cursed words against journalists and he gave a demonstrator the middle finger, for instance). He also came under further scrutiny, especially regarding his economic program, or rather lack of economic program. This is where he is vulnerable. Until now, he has not advanced a single economic proposal. He wrongly considers that immigration is the birth mother of all sin. If he manages to solve it, he believes that all the other issues will be magically solved too. This is overly optimistic, in our view.

This is the end for the Socialist Party : Voting intentions for the Socialist Party’s candidate, Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo, are at a record low of 4% in most polls. Hidalgo officially launched her presidential campaign on 23 October. But she has failed to build a positive momentum. She is a poor candidate. When journalists ask her tough questions, she often appears ill-prepared.  She is also criticized for the high crime rate and the garbage problem in Paris. On social media, residents used the #saccageparis (Trashed Paris) hashtag to post photos of rubbish piled up on the streets, for instance. This is disastrous for her image. The Socialist party is divided too. The majority is focusing on environmental issues and the preservation of purchasing power, with sometimes impractical ideas (i.e. doubling the teachers’ salaries). A vocal minority is promoting radical messaging on social issues, even culture war. That scares moderate voters the party needs to move upward in the polls. Unless there is an unexpected turn of events, Hidalgo and the Socialist Party will face a severe defeat at the 2022 presidential election. This would be the second time in the row that the Socialist candidate will get less than 10% of voting intentions in the first round (the 2017 presidential candidate Benoit Hamon gathered 6.35% of the votes). Expect a difficult recomposition of the Left and the Socialist Party following the election. There are no obvious leaders for the years to come. The third man of the 2017 presidential election, Jean Luc Mélenchon, is too old (70 years old). The candidate of the Greens, Yannick Jadot, is a talented and pragmatic negotiator. But he is not charismatic. There is basically a leadership vacuum in the Left. It will be complicated to fill in.

What to watch now : Besides the polls, we are focused on the primaries of the centre-right Les Républicains scheduled for 4 December. From yesterday to 4 December, about 139,918 members of Les Républicains are choosing between five candidates. The only requirement to vote is that membership fees are duly paid. Bertrand is the front-runner. Other candidates are the former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, the deputy Eric Ciotti, the former EU deputy Philippe Juvin and the head of the Ile-de-France region Valérie Pécresse. The name of the winner will be announced on 4 December in the evening. Expect Bertrand to win. However, it is unlikely to change the dynamics of the presidential race. Support for Bertrand has never really increased since he has officially announced his candidacy for President in March 2021. In most polls, voting intentions have been stable around 14% in recent months. This is not enough to make it to the second round of the presidential election.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.