Technical Update - GBPUSD, USDJOY, EURUSD & Dollar Index short- and medium-term outlook Technical Update - GBPUSD, USDJOY, EURUSD & Dollar Index short- and medium-term outlook Technical Update - GBPUSD, USDJOY, EURUSD & Dollar Index short- and medium-term outlook

Technical Update - GBPUSD, USDJOY, EURUSD & Dollar Index short- and medium-term outlook

Forex 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  GBPUSD has broken below key support likely to unfold Double top pattern with potential to 1.12
USDJPY is set for higher levels after breaking key resistance at 137.85
EURUSD treading water above key support at 1.0480
Dollar Index above resistance at 105.50

Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team

closed below key support at around 1.1840 meaning the double top like pattern can unfold with potential down to 1.1146 but since it is not the best textbook Double top pattern it could hurt the down side performance. Look out for support at the Fibonacci projection levels 1.618 at 1.1466 and the 1.764 projection at 1.1377.
Trend is down but do expect GBPUSD could move back above the 1.1840 level before selling pressure returns. 200 daily Moving Average (SMA) will provide resistance.
If GBPUSD closes back above 1.2145 the short-term bearish picture has been demolished.

Medium-term picture. GBPUSD formed an Evening Doji top and reversal pattern just below the cloud. At no point did the weekly RSI close above 60 threshold i.e., still in negative sentiment supporting the bearish picture with down side potential to strong support at around 1.1146. 
To reverse the bearish trend medium-term a close above 1.2446 is needed.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

USDJPY is testing key strong resistance at 137.85 hovering around the 200 SMA. A close above 137.85 is likely to pave the way towards next strong resistance at around 142.25
A move below 135.35 is likely to spur a correction down to the 55 SMA and support at around 132.90. Positive RSI supports the bullish scenario but if USDJPY closes below 131.15

Medium-term USDJPY is well above the cloud. If RSI closes back above 60 threshold it will further add to the bullish USDJPY picture pointing to levels around strong resistance at 142.25

EURUSD is testing the 100 SMA. RSI is in negative sentiment strongly suggesting key support at around 1.0480 is likely to be tested shortly. A close below could fuel a sell-off down to around 1.0222 possibly dipping down to the 0.618 retracement at around 1.01. For the short-term downtrend picture to be reverse a close above 1.0805 is needed. That will also jeopardise the below mentioned medium-term reversal scenario.

The Shooting Star candle on the weekly chart signalled a top and reversal in EURUSD. The reversal will be confirmed by a close below 1.0480.
RSI is still in positive sentiment however, but if EURUSD closes a week below 1.0480 down trend has been confirmed. For EURUSD to resume uptrend a move above 1.0805 is needed. If that plays out EURUSD could challenge the Shooting star peak and potentially also the resistance at around 1.1177.

Dollar Index has broken above the resistance at 105.60 confirming the uptrend. Supported by positive RSI the Dollar Index is set for a move to the 200 SMA and the 0.786 retracement around 106.35.
However, there is no strong resistance until around 107.90
A close below 104 will reverse this bullish scenario.

Medium-term the Dollar Index formed a bottom and reversal pattern in January (Circled) bouncing from the lower part of the cloud, now back above the 55 weekly SMA. If RSI closes above 60 threshold it will further confirm the uptrend.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.