Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURUSD testing key strong resistance at 1.2735
GBPUSD broken strong resistance could move to 1.29
USDCHF below support 0.8690 could be dropping to July lows
Dollar Index downtrend could take it to 101
EURUSD is once again being rejected at the strong resistance level at 1.10. A minor setback is currently unfolding but EURUSD is likely to resume uptrend and have another go at the 1.10 resistance level.
A break above 1.10 is likely to fuel next rally higher to the 1.382 projection at 1.1130
RSI is back above 60 threshold i.e., showing positive sentiment with no divergence indicating likely higher EURUSD levels.
To demolish the bullish picture a close below 1.0730 GBPUSD yesterday closed above strong resistance at around 1.2735 and seems destined to move to the 0.786 retracement at around 1.2905 which is also within few cents of the 1.764 projection at 1.2910 of the last couple of week’s correction.
RSI is showing positive sentiment but divergence could be building. However, for this bullish picture on GBPUSD to be reversed a close below 1.25 is needed USDCHF closed yesterday below support around 0.8690 resuming downtrend that could take the cross down to July lows around 0.8555. That level is within few cents of the 1.764 projection of the early December corrective move at 0.8548
There is RSI divergence building which is indicating this could be the last exhaustive sell-off. For USDCHF to reverse the current bearish trend a close above 0.8820 is needed The Dollar Index took out the minor support at 103.22 thus resuming downtrend. Following up yesterday by breaking back below the upper falling trend line the Dollar Index seems likely to be testing the support at around 101.62 shortly
If closing below 101.62 the sell-off could continue to the 0.786 retracement and support at around 101 and 100.78 respectively.
To reverse this bearish trend a close above 104.27 is needed. A close above 103.22 will put it in neutral i.e., wait and see Quarterly Outlook
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