Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: The Commitments of Traders reports highlight speculators positions and changes made during the week to October 6 in FX, bonds and stocks. A week where the prospect for additional U.S. stimulus and the reflation focus - as Biden extended his lead in the polls - saw the dollar trade softer while long bond yields jumped
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by speculators in forex, bonds and stocks up until last Tuesday, October 6.
This was the week where President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis helped support the prospects both for stimulus and an easier election win by Joe Biden as he extended his advantage in opinion polls. In response to these developments, the S&P 500 traded higher by 1% while the dollar was slightly softer. The big move, however occurred at the far end of the U.S. yield curve, with yields on 10 and 30-year bonds surging to a four-month high.
Despite trading lower against all but one of the ten IMM currency futures tracked in this report, speculators still reduced bearish dollar bets by 7% to $28.9 billion.
The bulk of the reduction – as per the table below - was against the euro, where continued profit taking saw the net long being cut by 7% to a ten-week low at 174,308 lots or €21.8 billion. The Japanese yen long was reduced by 3,687 lots while most other changes were relatively small apart from the Dollar Index where the net-short was almost cut in half.
The mentioned reflation trade continued to gain momentum during a week where the the yield on U.S. 10-year and 30-year bonds both jumped by 10 basis points. In response to this the leveraged fund net short in U.S. T-Bonds reached a new record of 432,589 lots giving it a value of $75.4 billion. The almost by the Fed controlled nature of the front of the yield curve have seen speculators betting or hedging against rising inflation and rising bond yields further out the curve.
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Head of Commodity Strategy
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Head of Commodity Strategy