Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Correction in US stock market seems to be smaller than anticipated with strong bounce last night. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 close to test key resistance. If taken out there could be 5% further upside going in to May
Nasdaq 100 was leading the US stock market higher last night jumping back above the 12,846 resistance level and is close to test strong resistance at around 13,204. A close above paves the way for a move towards the strong resistance level around 13,700.
RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence but needs to close back above 60 threshold to support further upside in the Index.
If Nasdaq 100 slides back to close below 12,846 correction is not over after all and the Index could drop to support at around 12,517.
The USNAS100 cfd closed just a few points below resistance at around 13,188. RSI closed above 60 indicating likely higher Index levels.
If USNAS100 slides back below 12,835 is could drop to 12,545
S&P 500 bounced strongly without even touching the 55 Moving Average and the 0.382 retracement. RSI still positive . An RSI close above 60 will confirm uptrend has resumed with S&P 500 likely to test resistance at around 4,195. A close above and the Index could move to 4,300 level in May.
However, if S&P 500 slides back below Thursday’s low it would be a signal the correction is not over with a likely move to 4,030-4,000.
US500 cfd bounced above 500 daily Moving Average. A move higher to previous peak around 4,193 seems likely. An RSI close above 60 will confirm that scenario. If US500 slides back below Thursday low it could drop down to around 4K.
2024: The wasted year
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.