Technical Update - Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSM and ASML. Strong uptrends but seems to be correction time Technical Update - Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSM and ASML. Strong uptrends but seems to be correction time Technical Update - Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSM and ASML. Strong uptrends but seems to be correction time

Technical Update - Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSM and ASML. Strong uptrends but seems to be correction time

Equities 5 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Semiconductors and semiconductor related stocks have been in a strong uptrend lately but now a correction seems to be looming
The trends in Nvidia, AMD, Intel, TSM and AMSL seem strong however, both on short- and medium-term indicating Semi's to end the year on a strong note


The technical picture is sending mixed signals in Nvidia.

Nvidia Opened almost unchanged after Earnings announcement last night.
The share price closed at an all-time high 20th November confirming its bullish trend.
RSI, which is showing positive sentiment underlining the bullish trend, is also flagging Divergence i.e., indicating weakness of the trend.

However, if Nvidia is performing a higher close the RSI divergence is likely to be cancelled. If that scenario plays out there could be potential to the 530-560 towards year end.

A close below 482 is likely to initiate a correction down to around 450.

Medium-term trend is up (weekly chart). There is massive RSI divergence though that could put a damper on the upside potential.
Adding to that is that the volume has been declining the past 4 weeks i.e., less and less buyers are pushing the share price higher. Volume should rise with higher prices.

However, RSI is still above 60 i.e., positive sentiment and the MACD line is close to break back above the Signals line, if that scenario plays out it would be a bullish signal.

To reverse the current medium-term bullish trend a close below 392 is needed
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Advanced Micro Devices AMD short-term bullish trend seems to be stalling. There I Divergence on RSI indicating a correction could be looming.

A correction that could take AMD down to around 115-112. Support at around 111.64.

However, the medium-term picture is still bullish with no RSI divergence on the weekly chart supporting a bullish outlook for AMD.

Intel INTC has gone almost vertical lately. But there is no RSI divergence on daily suggesting INTC can move higher.
However, a short-term correction should be expected. However, the correction is not expected to be major, probably not even down to the 0.382 retracement at 40.  

Strong support at around 38.86 that should not be broken. If it does the bullish picture is demolished. A close below 37.75 will reverse the trend

Medium-term INTC ahs is being rejected at the 200 weekly Moving Average and resistance at around 44.93.

However, RSI and traded volume is supporting higher INTC share prices after a correction.
A close above 44.93 could fuel another rally towards strong resistance at around 51.83

To reverse the medium-term bullish trend a close below 32.15

Taiwan Semiconductor TSM (ADR) has reached 1.618 projection of the Double bottom pattern at 100.82 followed by a top and reversal pattern ( Doji evening  but not textbook perfect - circled) that could initiate a correction.
The current minor setback is testing the minor support area at around 98-97.44. A close below 97.44 could fuel a correction down to 94-93. There is some support at the Double bottom peak at 94.78.
If closing below 92.65 further selling should be expected.

Medium-term TSM is in a bullish trend but seems to be struggling for momentum. RSI is showing positive sentiment (has not closed below 40 after closing above 60 means that it is still in positive sentiment) but has failed to close back above the 60 threshold last week.

An RSI close above 60 threshold on the weekly will support the bullish outlook. Volume the past 3-4 weeks have been rising

Strong resistance at around 105-110

ASML is trending higher after breaking the falling trend channel from July through October.
RSI is showing positive sentiment supporting the bullish trend but ASML seems to be hitting the 0.618 retracement at around 635.57 and a short-term, correction is in the cards.

A daily close above 636.50 is likely to push ASML higher towards resistance at around 652.80 and 688.

A close below 600 is likely to demolish the bullish picture

Medium-term the bullish trend has resumed but weekly RSI is struggling to get back above 60 threshold. A close above with further support higher ASML levels

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.