Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Nikkei 225 is in an uptrend moving in a rising channel like pattern close to test resistance at around 29,222.
To demolish this short-term bullish picture a close below 28,240 is needed.
Medium-term Nikkei is also in an uptrend and if closing above 29,222 it paves the way for a move towards 2021 peak at around 30,714.
RSI is showing positive sentiment confirming the uptrend
JP225 cfd levels. Testing 29,190 peak from 2022. A break above could lead to move to resistance at around 29,952. If JP 225 drops below 28,233 a correction down to around 27,500 could be seen.
Hang Seng Index has once again been rejected at the 55 daily Moving Average and could be destined for a move below the declining 200 daily Moving Average. Hang Seng could be testing support at around 18,814
For Hang Seng to reverse the bearish picture a close above 20,865 is needed
The HK50 cfd however, is bouncing from the 200 daily Moving Average and if it can close above 55 and 100 Moving Average the down trend could be in jeopardy.
China A50 future continues its bounce from support at around 12,820 but seems to be struggling at the 55 daily Moving Average. The A50 future could be range bound between 12,820 and 13,651 for the next few weeks. Br5eak out is needed for direction.
If breaking out to the downside medium-term down trend ahs been confirmed with A50 likely to drop to 11,500-11,000.
Breaking out to the upside there is room up to 15K.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.