Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Meta, Apple, NVidia & Tesla
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Meta uptrend very stretched and short-term correction could be seen. But no strong resistance until around 320
Apple making all-time highs almost daily could extend uptrend
Nvidia uptrend extremely overbought and seems to be stalling. A correction could unfold.
Tesla gapped higher and is on course to 313
Meta uptrend has since lates last year been in an almost 45 degrees ancle in a very narrow rising channel pattern, with only minor corrections. Meta has reached levels not seen since prior to the massive sell-off back in Q1 2022.
The uptrend is very stretched and on daily chart there is massive RSI divergence indicating a weakening of the uptrend short-term
A correction could occur anytime soon but confirmation is needed. If Meta closes below its lower rising trendline and below 277.60 a swift sell-off down to support at around 260 could be seen.
A close below 260 could extend a correction further to 250-243.
However, on the weekly chart there is no RSI divergence indicating Meta is likely to extend its uptrend. An uptrend that could continue to resistance at around 320-328.
To reverse the medium-term uptrend a close below 230 is needed
Apple gapped higher Friday last week extending uptrend and cancelling its RSI divergence with a higher RSI value.
To demolish the short-term bullish picture a close of the gap from last week could be first indication i.e., a close below 189.59. If that plays out a correction down to 184-177 could be seen
However, weekly chart with no RSI divergence also draw the picture of likely higher Apple price.
There is no overhead resistance. $200 is not unlikely to be reached shortly.
Nvidia uptrend seems to be stalling. There is RSI divergence on daily chart indicating a correction could unfold.
However, trend is still up but if Nvidia closes below 401 a sell-off down to key support at around 374.75 is in the cards.
The gap down to 316.78 is crucial.
RSI on the weekly chart is indicating Nvidia is overbought with a value above 80, but there is no divergence suggesting Nvidia could move to higher price levels.
If Nvidia closes below 401 a larger correction could unfold a close below 374.75 will confirm that. Next couple of weeks could be decisive.
Tesla gapped higher Monday to record a new year high and seems set for further upside. No resistance until around 313.
There is RSI divergence on daily chart but no divergence on weekly RSI.
To demolish the short-term bullish picture a close of the gap i.e., a close below 261.75 is needed.
To reverse the medium-term uptrend a close below 240.70 is needed. First indication for this to unfold would be a close
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...