Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX has taken out key resistance confirming uptrend short- and medium-term. DAX is likely to break above 15K
DAX is at the time of writing trading above resistance at around 14,901. A close above, which seems quite likely, given that RSI has broken above its falling trendline will further add to the bullish picture.
There will still be divergence on RSI however, but that divergence could be traded out in the coming days. (Traded out means that RSI close above previous peak in this case above dashed horizontal line)
DAX is likely to take out 15K which is a psychological level (expect a lot of News headlines) more than a technical level. A move to at least the 1.618 projection of the December correction at around 15,222 is in the cards.
If DAX closes back below 14,653 we could see a set back to around 14,507-14,235 but the uptrend would still be intact. For this uptrend to be reversed short-term a close below 13,564 is needed.
Medium-term DAX has confirmed its uptrend DAX could reach the 0.786 retracement of the 2022 downtrend at around 15,339 which within few cents from the 1.764 projection of the December correction at 13,351.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy