Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX / GER40, AEX25 / NETH25 and BEL20 / BELG20 breaking key supports. Likely to confirm bearish trend
CAC40 / FRA40 and SMI20 / SWISS20 still holding on above key supports
DAX/GER40 closed Friday back above key support at around 15,482. Currently it is trading below after a positive open.
If closing below downtrend has been confirmed supported by negative sentiment on RSI.
Next support at around 14,933-14,458 support area.
If closing the week below 15,482 downtrend has also been confirmed on the medium-term trend
For DAX to reverse the trend a close above15,990 is needed.
AEX25/NETH25 is currently trading below key strong support at around 730. A daily close below will confirm the down trend and likely leading to increased selling pressure towards 716-710 support area.
Medium-term there is room down to 689 level.
To demolish the downtrend a close above 750 is needed BEL20/BELG20 tried to get back above support around 3,632 but sellers are in control and seems likely to be pushing the BEL20 index towards next support at around 3,551.
If RSI is closing back below 40 threshold, which seems quite likely, that will add to the bearish picture
SMI20/SWISS20 is fighting to keep itself above lower rising trendline. If closing below it could be signal that SMI to be hit by selling pressure down to strong support a around 10,750.
RSI is still showing positive sentiment but if closing below 40 threshold the bearish trend has been confirmed.
Closing below its rising (blue) trendline could be first warning that SMI will turn bearish.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
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Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach