Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
CAC40 correction could have come to an end with the past two days of selling pressure. Some overhead resistance with the 100 SMA declining. If CAC closes below lower rising trend line selling is likely to be fueled.
AEX Amsterdam seems to have hit resistance at 719. RSI rejected at 60 i.e. still in negative sentiment and with yesterday’s sell-off buyers are likely to have run out of steam. If AEX closes below lower rising trend line selling pressure is likely to intensify pushing for May and probably also March lows.
A Daily close above 720 could extend short term corrective uptrend to around 741
BEL20 with Wednesday lower close BEL20 has confirmed down trend. Support at around 3,758. To neutralize that picture a daily close above 3,986 is needed.
SMI20 still in down trend, failing to close above 11,809. With all SMA’s declining underlying trend is down with strong overhead resistances. May lows and quite possibly also March lows are to be tested. To neutralize the down trend a daily close above 11809 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.