Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX closed Monday above peak of the Doji Evening Star like pattern thereby cancelling it confirming uptrend. However, it is an uptrend with minor divergence on RSI (RSI peak Monday is slightly lower than 30th May peak) indicating weakening of the uptrend. That means it can be a bit of a struggle for DAX to reach strong key resistance at 14,952.
If DAX closes below 14,329 the uptrend is likely to be reversed.
EuroStoxx50 seems to find overhead resistance at around 3,3,857. If the Index cannot close above selling could resume. A daily close below 3,755 is likely to reverse the short-term uptrend scenario
CAC40 struggle to maintain upside momentum with resistance at around 6,582. CAC40 needs to close above for further upside. However, RSI still showing negativ4e sentiment indicating the short-term uptrend is exhausting. Look out for RSI rising trend line. A break below could be early warning sellers regain control. A close below 6,414 will confirm that picture.
AEX seems to be short term range bound between 700 and 720. Breakout is needed for direction. RSI is showing negative sentiment indicating break out is likely to be to the downside
BEL20 trading below falling trend line which the Index needs to close above for upside potential. A close above 3,986 will confirm current downtrend has reversed. Resistance at 4,031. A close below 3,837 the down trend will resume. Key support around 3,758.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.