Weekly Commodities Update Weekly Commodities Update Weekly Commodities Update

Market Insights Today: Fed speakers hinting peak hawkishness, Wheat surges on new escalations in Russia/Ukraine – October 11, 2022

Equities 3 minutes to read
APAC Strategy Team

Summary:  Despite some signals of peak hawkishness, Fed members reiterated higher-for-longer rates, and equities remained under pressure due to fresh escalations in Russia/Ukraine conflict as well as Biden administration’s move to restrict chip sales to China. Germany’s move to join EU debt issuance supports Saxo’s base case for a European fiscal union, while UK’s confidence crisis continues despite fresh liquidity injection. Oil reversed some of the post-OPEC gains but wheat surged on supply worries. USD momentum built further, and all eyes now on US corporate earnings season kickoff and the CPI report.


What is happening in markets?

Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) indices fell for the fourth day and remain on a knife edge ahead of CPI and Fed minutes

Ahead of CPI data on Thursday and Fed Meeting Minutes, plus new escalations in the Russia-Ukraine war, investors are trading in a risk-off and defensive mood. The benchmark, S&P500 ended 0.75% lower after a choppy session, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1%, closing near two-year lows with semiconductors among the worst performers after Washington’s moved to further restrict China’s access to US technology, which adds to signs of slowing global chip demand. The PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped 3.5%. So, once again, the S&P500 is in a precarious position and also has fully erased the October rally. Selling was heavy in the Casino and Gaming Sector (falling almost 7%), with stocks like Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, tumbling after data showed tourism revenue fell sharply over China’s week-long holiday. Meanwhile, the leisure Product sector fell over 2%. Conversely, investors and trades topped up the exposure in defensive sectors with the most buying in the Food and Drug Sectors; with Walgreens up 4%.

U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) climbed this Asian morning

The cash treasury bond market was closed on Monday for Columbus Day. The futures market bear steeped with the long end sold off on weakness in the U.K. gilts market. The Bank of England said its emergency bond buying program would end as planned on Friday. U.S.10-year note yields opened at 3.95% this morning in Asia, 7bps higher than their Friday close in New York.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) declined on weak holiday consumption and the U.S. tightening restriction on China’s access to semiconductor technology

China returned from a week-long holiday yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index traded below 3,000 for the first time since May this year and the CSI300 Index dropped 2.2% to a 2.5-year low to finish at 3,720.94.  In Hong Kong, Hang Seng Index fell nearly 3% and the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) tumbled 4%. Last Friday, the Biden Administration rolled out new rules to restrict China’s access to semiconductor equipment and their components plus tightening the Foreign Direct Product Rule to restrict China from obtaining advanced microchips. Semiconductor names plunged in both the Hong Kong and mainland bourses, with SMIC (00981:xhkg) down 4%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347:xhkg) down 9.4%. The surge in Covid-19 cases and the tightening of pandemic control restrictions took a toll on the performance of tourism during China’s National Day golden week holiday. The number of people who travelled during the holiday was 18% lower from 2021 and 39% lower than before the pandemic in 2019. The three Chinese airline stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped around 5% and other China consumption names sold off as well. Meituan (03690:xhkg) tumbled 6.7% as investors took the company’s plan to expand its food delivery business overseas starting from Hong Kong as a sign of slower growth in the domestic market. An editorial in the People’s daily reiterated the Chinese authorities’ determination to maintain the Covid Zero policy.  Macao casino stocks dropped from 4% to 8%. The weakness in the EV space persisted with the leading names falling from 2% to 6%. Poultry, and pig farming stocks gained in the A-share market.

Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) futures suggest a positive day is on the cards amid AGM season

The Australian share market is expected to have a positive day of trade today if you go by the futures which indicate the market will lift by about 0.2% (or 0.18%). A focus will be on lithium stocks, with investors to perhaps sell down and make fresh profits. The reason for this is that Automakers Ford, General Motors, and Rivian are said to be facing a darkening outlook amid rising interest rates in the US. Rivian alone is recalling 13,000 vehicles after discovering a defect. So it’s worth watching Pilbara Minerals, Core Lithium, Lake Resources, and the like. On the corporate news side of town, its AGM season; Telstra holds its AGM today at 9.30am Sydney time.

Further surge in USD leaves the AUDUSD to fresh two-year lows and Japanese yen at intervention threat levels

With the US dollar rising against most major currencies, the US dollar index has now risen for the fourth consecutive day and in doing so moved to its highest level this month, leaving the Australian dollar under pressure. The concern is that the AUDUSD currency pair has little technical support at these levels. USDJPY rose to highs of 145.80, remaining just short of 145.90 level where authorities intervened few weeks ago. Steady gain in US yields and the dollar mean further pressure on the Japanese yen will be hard to avoid, given the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control policy.

Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) prices cool slightly

The battle between demand and supply concerns continued in the energy markets, and oil prices dipped lower after solid gains last week. Demand concerns picked up amid higher US dollar weighing on the economic growth outlook, as OPEC+ production cut impact faded. US Columbus Day holiday also meant thin trading. With geopolitical concerns out of Russia/Ukraine taking a leg up, there is peak uneasiness and caution, and this could further squeeze the oil markets.  

Wheat futures (ZWZ2 & WHEATDEC22) at 3-month highs

Wheat prices climbed to their highest levels since July amid worsening Russia/Ukraine tensions and a worsening US crop outlook output. The futures climbed as much as 7.9% in Chicago, within cents of the daily exchange limit, before ultimately settling up 6.6% after explosions rocked the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Russia has threatened further missile attacks, suggesting further food security concerns could continue. The key crop report from the US Department of Agriculture is due on Wednesday.

Iron Ore (SCOA) price hits a three-week high after China returned from week-long holiday

The price of the key streel ingredient, Iron Ore (SOCA, SCOX2) rose 3.3% overnight to $96.95, and then promptly gave back some of those gains this morning, falling by 0.88%. The pick up in buying comes as China’s markets reopened after a week-long holiday. Yesterday’s iron ore advance was the biggest one-day jump in three weeks. The Iron Ore price remains 50% lower than its all-time high of ~$211 after China curbed imports and lockdowns continue to linger. Iron ore is finding it hard to break out of its bear market, this is despite the US steel giant, Nucor announcing two weeks ago its pushing ahead with plans to expand steel production, with its newest line to open in mid-2025. However, shares in BHP have rallied off their lows and trade 15% away from record high-territory, with the miner benefiting from rising cash flows from its other businesses (coal and oil).

 

What to consider?

Germany joins EU debt issuance for energy crisis

Chancellor Scholz reportedly reversed German position and warmed up to the joint EU debt issuance to fund energy packages, as long as the fresh funds are disbursed to struggling member states as loans, not grants. This is single-handedly one of biggest impulses ever in Germany history to be released. This means Germany is now “guaranteeing” sovereign EU debt and we are getting close to Saxo’s base case for Europe: A fiscal union through the back-door has already happened and will progress to “minimize” Italian debt issue, as it will be drowned by EU issuance.

Fed Vice Chair Brainard signaling peak hawkishness, but still higher for longer rates

Lael Brainard sounded a small note of caution on Fed’s tightening, saying that it will take time for rate hikes to bring inflation down while also highlighting slowing growth, cooling labor market and financial vulnerabilities. Still, she reaffirmed that monetary policy will be restrictive for some time. Charles Evans remained in favor of front loading, saying that the Fed should quickly reach levels where policymakers feel comfortable pausing to reduce the risk of overshooting.

BOE on course to end buyback operations, but announced fresh liquidity measures

The Bank of England announced it remains on course to end its temporary buy-back auctions at the end of the week and is switching to liquidity support via expanded collateral repos, also for a limited period to help banks with customers that are not entirely hedged against LDI exposure. Gilts plunged as investors remain worried, with 30-year yields rising above 4.7% and 20-year touching a high of 4.9%. Meanwhile, the medium term fiscal plan is to be published on October 31, just before the next MPC rate meeting, which at the least means a more informed decision may be possible.

For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight.

For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.