Details Cookies
Important margin product information
CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.56% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Earnings Watch, US economy, and earnings estimates Earnings Watch, US economy, and earnings estimates Earnings Watch, US economy, and earnings estimates

Earnings Watch, US economy, and earnings estimates

Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy

Summary:  Salesforce reports Q1 earnings on Wednesday with analysts expecting 10% revenue growth and significant increase in EBITDA compared to a year ago. Broad economic figures published yesterday suggest the US economy is still growing robustly supporting the view that unless we get a crisis moment the economy will not warrant the Fed to cut rates this year. Finally, earnings estimates continue to rise in both the US and Europe suggesting the equity market is not betting on a hard landing or crisis this year.

Key points in this equity note:

  • Salesforce is the key earnings release to watch next week scheduled to report Wednesday after the US market close. Analysts are expecting a significant increase in EBITDA.

  • Economic data published yesterday suggest the US economy is still growing around trend growth up until end of April supporting the idea that the Fed will likely not cut the policy rate this year.

  • Earnings estimates in the US and Europe continue to increase as the equity market continues to price a soft contraction in real terms and still significant nominal GDP growth.

Earnings releases are taking a backseat

The Q1 earnings season is over and the earnings calendar is getting thinner. Next week the most important earnings release is Salesforce reporting FY24 Q1 (ending 30 Apr) earnings on Wednesday after the close with analysts expecting revenue of $8.2bn up 10.3% y/y and EBITDA of $3bn up from $1.2bn a year ago as the cost cutting initiatives are expected to significantly lift profitability for the business software application maker. Salesforce’s revenue growth is coming as technology spending is slowing as we have seen for all companies related to technology spending including Snowflake the other. However, the focus for investors and management is shifting away from 20% revenue growth towards free cash flow generation and it is our expectation that Salesforce is now on a path to significantly higher profitability over the next five years. Salesforce shares are up 58% this year responding to management’s focus on profitability.

Salesforce share price | Source: Saxo

The list below shows the most important earnings releases next week:

  • Tuesday: HP, HP Enterprise
  • Wednesday: Salesforce, Crowdstrike, Okta
  • Thursday: Broadcom, VMware, Lululemon Athletica, Dell Technologies, MongoDB, Zscaler, Dollar General, Hormel Foods

The US economy rebounds in April

The US banking crisis earlier this year set in motion an expectation of tighter financial conditions and increased the market’s assessed probability of a recession leading to the market suddenly pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year. We continued to argue that economic growth and labour market were strong enough and that investors were making the mistake again about expecting lower inflation and rate prematurely. Financial conditions have done nothing but easing since the US banking crisis started in US regional banks and are now as easy as during early February.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index figures for April showed yesterday that the US economy rebounded in April to levels above long-term trend growth while the 3-month average is still suggesting slightly below trend growth, but still comfortably above the recession threshold (orange line in the chart). In addition, initial jobless claims and job openings in the US labour market continue to paint a picture of a tight labour market favourable for wage growth and thus mitigating some of the negative effects from inflation.

While many fixed-income indicators can be used to project a recession the equity market is still quite calm about these prospects expecting just a mild real GDP contraction with nominal GDP growth continuing at 5% lifting revenue and earnings for companies.

Nvidia share price | Source: Saxo

Earnings estimates are only gone up since Q1 earnings season started

The positive outlook and robust economic activity levels are also evident in 12-month forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 and STOXX 600 indices up 0.4% and 2.5% respectively this year jumping much higher since Q1 earnings began rolling out. While US equities have lately been trading sideways there is a growing risk of equities come a bit under pressure should the Fed communicate that the policy rate needs to be set higher to effectively lower economic growth to constrain inflation.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.