Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Yesterday started very friendly for risk sentiment with equities rising strongly and the USD Index dropping. A stronger than expected ISM Manufacturing number changed the mood as it came at 61.2 vs. 60.9. Stocks gave up their gains and USD grew stronger. The Institute for Supply Management reports of labor and materiel shortages constraining growth.
The Australian GDP exceeded growth at 1.8% vs 1.6% expected
The USD Index is trading at 89.93, Gold and Silver fall to 1896 and 27.80, EURUSD trades at 1.2216 and GBPUSD at 1.4140. Oil rose to the highest levels since March with Brent futures rising 0.6% to USD 70.67
Ole Hansen stated: Ahead of today's OPEC+ meeting Brent crude oil has reached a four-month high above $70 while WTI crude oil trades at the highest level since October 2018. Driven by tightening market conditions as OPEC+ keep production tight and a continued recovery in global demand as vaccine rollouts support increased mobility.
Acc to a report by Reuters, Chinese Banks are struggling with huge USD Deposits, they rose by $242.2 billion in the last 16 months, equal to about 1.8% of gross domestic product .
Today there is little key data on the agenda, tomorrow there is a flurry of PMI and the US Jobless data ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll on Friday.
Safe Trading!
Economic Events for the next few days:
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Prior |
2 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Indonesia | IHS Markit PMI | May | 54.6 | |
2 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP QQ SA | Q1 | 3.1% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP YY SA | Q1 | -1.1% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Apr | 10.5% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Mauritius | REPO Rate | Q2 | 1.85% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 23:00 | Chile | Interest Rate | May | 0.50% | |
2 Jun 2021 | Indonesia | Inflation YY | May | 1.42% | ||
3 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | May | 49.5 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | Apr | 1.1% | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Apr | 5,574M | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | May | 56.3 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 06:15 | Saudi Arabia | IHS Markit Comp PMI | May | 55.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 07:00 | India | IHS Markit Svcs PMI | May | 49.0 | 54.0 |
3 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | May | 178,963.97M | |
3 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Russia | Markit Services PMI | May | 55.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | May | 1.68% | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:15 | South Africa | Std Bank Whole Econ PMI | May | 53.7 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | May | 56.6 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | May | 57.0 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | May | 52.8 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 56.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | May | 55.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 56.9 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 24 May, w/e | ||
3 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 68.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | May | 70.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | May | 62.9 | 62.7 |
4 Jun 2021 | 03:00 | Philippines | CPI YY | May | 4.5% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Cash Reserve Ratio | 4 Jun | 4.00% | 3.50% |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Repo Rate | 4 Jun | 4.00% | 4.00% |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Reverse Repo Rate | 4 Jun | 3.35% | 3.35% |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | May | 621k | 266k |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | May | 5.9% | 6.1% |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | May | 0.3% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | May | -207.1k | |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | May | 8.1% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | May | 42.9 | |
4 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | May | 44.5 | |
4 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Apr | 1.1% |