Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Gold was rejected fiercely at the key resistance at 1,808 yesterday sending the precious metal back below 200 daily SMA. There is divergence on RSI indicating Gold could retrace further. If Gold breaks below 1,735 the bounce off lows is likely to be over. A close below 1,722 will confirm this. An indication of this scenario to play out is if RSI closes below its lower rising trendline.
If buyers can come back in a close Gold above 1,810 expect further upside to around 1,875
Silver closed above key resistance at around 22.30 moving to 0.618 retracement at around 23.36. Next few days can be crucial for Silver. If Silver slides lower to close below this short-term rising black trendline the uptrend could be in jeopardy. A close below 20.86 is likely to fuel further sell-off down below 20.
If Silver can stay above 20.30 there is potential to a move towards 25. The fact that there is no divergence supports the bullish scenario but keep an eye on the RSI and its lower rising trendline. A close below could increase the down wards price pressure.
Gold/Silver ratio seems to be forming a falling wedge like pattern. There is divergence on RSI indicating the selling pressure is easing and Gold/Silver ratio is ripe for an upwards correction. However, a new low to support at around 76 is not unlikely.
Copper has been rejected at the 0.786 retracement at around 387. RSI is still bullish with no divergence indicating we could see higher levels above 396. However, daily 200 SMA will provide resistance but if Copper can overcome there is potential short-term to 426-428.
If buyers cannot keep Copper above 354 it could drop to around 330.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.