Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold resuming uptrend and could test previous peak. Eyeing 2K. Silver broken out of bearish pattern but facing strong resistance around 22. Gold/Silver ratio uptrend continues. Copper range bound, 394 is still key support
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Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
Gold XAUUSD closed above 0.618 retracement and resistance at around 1,865. At the time of writing that level is being tested from the upper side – 1,865 is now a support level.
RSI is back above 60 threshold i.e., in positive sentiment indicating higher Gold levels are likely. Minor resistance at the 0.786 retracement at 1,926 but a move to test previous peak at around 1,960 is in the cards.
Medium-term on the weekly chart Gold has resumed uptrend after a correction where the precious metal tested the lower part of the cloud and is set for higher levels. If Gold takes out January peak at 1,960 Gold is likely to move higher to test towards 1.618 projection at 2,055 possibly testing the all-time highs at around 2,074. Positive RSI supports this bullish scenario
To reverse this bullish picture a close below 1,800 is needed.
Silver XAGUSD broke bullish out of its falling wedge like pattern peaking just below strong resistance at around 22.05. This move had been in the making as mentioned in previous Technical Update on Metals.
However, a minor setback to around the 200 daily Moving average and 21 should be expected. RSI is still below 60 showing negative sentiment. However, there is divergence indicating the downtrend has exhausted but Silver needs to close above 22.05 to reverse that trend.
Medium-term on the weekly chart Silver is in fact in an uptrend but currently in a correction phase bouncing from the 0.618 retracement and the lower part of the Ichimoku cloud.
Upper part of the clous Is currently at 22.25 and a move above that level will mean Silver has resumed uptrend that could take the metal to 2460-25.85 resistance.
However, if Silver drops back top close below 19.90 down trend is likely to extend possibly down to around 17.50
Gold/Silver ratio XAUXAG rejected at the 0.786 retracement at 91.80 and once again tested the lower rising trendline but managed to close above. A bounce from the trendline will suggest another attempt at the 91.80. A break of that level is likely to extend the uptrend to 96.50.
However, if XAUXAG closes below 86.90 it could be an indication of the uptrend being over and the ratio could drop back down to around 83.
Copper range bound with strong support at 394. RSI sentiment still bullish indicating break out to the upside of the upper falling trend line in Copper. Resistance at around 419.40 for a move to previous peak at around 435.50.
A close below 392 is likely to turn the picture bearish with a move down to strong support at around 370.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.