Technical Update - Copper and Platinum testing key resistances. Palladium keeps slowly rising
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Copper trying to establish uptrend testing falling trend line.
Volatile Platinum on the edge new uptrend. 939 is key Palladium in slightly rising trend and seems to keep going
Copper is testing upper trend liner in what looks like a corrective falling channel. Copper found support at the 0.786 Fibo retracement of the bounce from July lows.
If Copper can close above the falling trend line and RSI close above 60 Copper is likely to resume uptrend with resistance at 378. If closing above there is further upside with no strong resistance before around 455. 200 SMA coming down will offer some resistance, however and 0.618 retracement of the May-June sell-off at around 402 should be considered a resistance.
If Copper gets rejected it could slide back to test the July lows at around 313. Support at 327.
However, the 55 SMA is sloping upwards indicating underlying positive sentiment.
Platinum has been very volatile lately. However, if Platinum can close above $939 it has established an uptrend confirmed by RSI being above 60. A move to 975 would then be likely but Platinum could very well continue higher to around 1,035. It is close to 0.618 retracement of the March 2020 to September 2022 down trend, 1,382 projection of the August- September sell-off and 2.0 projection of the recent September correction.
938 and 975 are key levels for this scenario to unfold.
Palladium is in a slightly rising trend after closing above 2,288. All Simple Moving Averages are upwards sloping indicating underlying bullish sentiment. Next resistance at around 2,465
The upper upward sloping (back) trendline is shifted parallel from the lower trendline to indicate the rising channel Palladium could be trading in over the next few weeks possibly months.
A close below 2,023 will demolish this scenario
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.