Technical Update - US Treasury yields struggling to extend uptrend. Uptrend in German Government yields strong hitting resistance

Technical Update - US Treasury yields struggling to extend uptrend. Uptrend in German Government yields strong hitting resistance

Bonds 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

US 2-year Treasury yield is testing May peak at 4.634. A close above is needed for extending the uptrend to 4.88-5%.
If yields slides back to close below 4.23 the trend has reversed.

Source: Saxo Group

US 10-year Treasury yield bounced off lower rising trendline. Uptrend is intact supported by positive RSI sentiment and all Moving Averages rising. However, a close above 3.86 is needed for the uptrend to be extended towards 4%.r .
1.618 Projection of the latest correction is at 4.05, same level as the Q1 high close.

To reverse this bullish scenario a drop back below 3.54 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out could be a break of lower rising trendline.

Source: Saxo Group
US 30-year Treasury yield has been moving in a rising channel pattern. Rejected at the resistance at around 4%. At the time of writing 30-year yields are breaking below its rising trendline i.e., breaking bearish out of its rising channel. Some support at 3.82
If closing below 3.72 the uptrend is likely to have reversed.

However, RSI is still positive indicating higher levels, it needs to close below 40 threshold to reverse that.
A break above 4.01 - which at the moments seems like a long shot to happen -  is likely to lead to at move to 4.20.

Source: Saxo Group

2-year German Government yield is in an uptrend and could reach March peak around 3.38 within a few weeks.
To reverse this uptrend a close below 2.72 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be if yields are breaking below its lower rising trendline

Source: Tradingview

5-year German Government yield has formed an Ascending triangle like pattern it is trying to break bullish out of. A spike up today has been send back down below resistance at around 2.58. If closing above we could see a rally up to previous peak at around 2.90.

To reverse this uptrend a close below 2.32 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be if yields are breaking below its lower rising trendline

Source: Tradingview

10-year German Government yield has – similar to 2-years - formed an Ascending triangle like pattern. An attempt to break above the resistance at around 2.46 has at the time of writing failed.
A close above could fuel a rally to previous peak at around 2.77

To reverse this uptrend a close below 2.24 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be if yields are breaking below its lower rising trendline

Source: Tradingview

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.