Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Summary: Heavy US Treasury notes issuance this week will provide an insight to inflation expectations.
This week’s focus is going to be in the primary US Treasury market:
We expect the 3-year notes to quote in line with current market valuations. However, we believe that the 10 and 30-year note issuances are crucial to understanding investors' expectations regarding CPI numbers, which are going to be released on Friday. If investors expect higher inflation, they will demand higher yields. Therefore, we could potentially see 5s30s steepening, while the front end of the curve could flatten slightly as risk-averse investors position themselves into shorter maturities.
Another area to look at is the investment-grade (IG) bond space. This week, dealers are looking to issue up to $50bn IG bonds. This year has seen the largest issuance in investment-grade bonds ever, with lower-rated IG corporates issuing the largest amount. We believe that this is a major credit negative signal as the system gets more and more leveraged and ratings are doomed to deteriorate. We will look to this point into detail in an article published this week.
On Thursday we have the ECB meeting where the market is expecting Lagarde to talk the euro down. The ECB might even decide to cut the main policy rate by 10bps to reinforce this point. If that were to happen, we expect the bund to reprice higher. Still, we don't believe it will be a driver for higher prices in the European corporate bond space as yields are already depressed.
Economic Calendar:
Monday 7th
Tuesday 8th
Wednesday 9th
Thursday 10th
Friday 11th
Sovereign rating updates
2024: The wasted year
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Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
