Have the markets got Fed expectations right?
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today features special guest, Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen, who takes us through his perspective on what the Fed may do from here based on two scenarios for inflation, one "benign" and one less so, as we await today's US November CPI data point ahead of a very pivotal FOMC meeting next week. We also look at the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe and wheat ahead of a very expensive spring for planters looking at soaring fertilizer prices. Also, we preview the busy economic calendar for the week ahead, which includes an ECB meeting and several other Central Bank meetings of note. Today's pod also features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.