Podcast: The great twin tightening is barreling down on us
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we look at the continued pressure on risk sentiment after the FOMC minutes show the Fed discussing a rapid pace of quantitative tightening that is set to phase in after the May 4 FOMC meeting and, together with US treasury net issuance, will mean an annual run rate of $2-2.5 trillion in liquidity tightening for financial markets. Financial conditions have been responding accordingly, a dangerous development for equity markets if the tightening continues apace. The US dollar has jumped back higher over the last couple of sessions against riskier currencies and the oil market may be responding to that as well as to demand reductions from Chinese lockdowns and an incoming flood of supply from further reserve releases. Copper, Facebook and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.