Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today, a look at a very unusual and very climactic third consecutive outside day on the Nasdaq 100 index, as the intraday rally tested all time new highs before selling started that accelerated on Amazon.com's earnings after the close. Also, a look at Europe struggling mightily today and some of the mighty that have fallen of late. Huge focus today as well on the US July jobs report and how it will impact the US dollar, as well as a preview of critical names reporting earnings next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Podcast slide deck link
Today’s links
Zuckerberg’s “Superintelligence” memo and one excellent go at decoding it. One money quote hinting that Zuck is about to bet the farm on a paradigm shift for the company. “Most CEOs defend their existing moats. Zuckerberg systematically abandons them. He understands that Facebook’s real asset isn’t the blue app. Instead, it is the graph of human attention and relationships. Each pivot is about preserving that graph while migrating it to new interfaces”.
Here’s a great conversation on the Lex Fridman podcast with the host and one of Google’s top AI figures, DeepMind head Demis Hassabis, covering a vast range of AI-related topics, from how AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) would be recognized, the need for “new interfaces” to replace the text prompt, immersive unbound AI worlds, how life came about, future energy sources and on and on.
Bloomberg on the huge array of carveouts that sees Trump NOT tariffing a huge array of consumer goods to avoid a popular backlash from US consumers, a kind of exercise of trying to eat his cake and having it too.
Today’s chart: GBPJPY
Last minute, I am putting in a chart of GBPJPY because of how things have developed since yesterday’s close and because I discussed this a bit on today’s podcast. It makes sense to see JPY spiraling on the BoJ development this week, but if yields don’t continue rising, there isn’t much further pressure feeding the JPY weakness from a fundamental angle. And now we are badly “risk off” in Europe today - which is generally negative for sterling (note the sterling wipeout during the April Liberation Day meltdown). If US jobs numbers don’t support risk sentiment today and equity markets stay in a funk, and especially if global bonds rally as well, this pair could be in for a steep correction.
Questions and comments, please!
We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
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