It's a quietish start to the week but there’s still plenty to keep an eye on including Turkish CPI, Eurozone PPI, and factory orders and durable goods orders from the US. These latter prints come on the heels of solid payrolls data on Friday, including a 2.6% gain in average hourly earnings. However, despite these robust numbers, the US dollar rally started to fade as resurgent risk appetite put it on the back foot, reports John J Hardy, Saxo’s Head of Forex Strategy.
The Australian dollar faces a heavy data calendar this week, most importantly, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting at 04:30 GMT Tuesday, though the market consensus doesn’t expect a rate hike until next year.
In equities, risk appetite is back, and European bourses have opened in positive territory, following the lead from Asian gains overnight, says Peter Garnry, Saxo’s Head of Equity Strategy. That said, some risks still lurk in the background including the US trade war and creaky emerging markets.
Finally today, in commodities, Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of Commodity Strategy, says that gold’s resolve is likely to be challenged ahead of the June 13 Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Friday’s strong job report all but confirmed that another rate hike is coming.
WTI crude oil is challenging support at $65.50/barrel and has retraced half of the February–May rally, with the drivers including expectations that Opec and Russia will soon increase output.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.