Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Italian president Sergio Mattarella has appointed a caretaker government in the wake of rejecting the Lega/Five Star coalition's allegedly eurosceptic nomination for prime minister.
The move will do little to calm the Italian situation as populism remains a favoured position among the general public; this narrative has likely only been strengthened by what reads as an establishment move to block a government with strong support.
"This is far from over," says Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy, adding that we will likely see a new election this fall. In terms of asset movements, Hardy states that the JPY has been the main initial beneficiary of the unrest, dipping below 109.00 into Monday's session.
"Watch Italy/German bond spreads for sure," says Hardy, with Saxo Bank technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson noting that a move back down to 20,000 in the Italy 40 index appears likely as well.
Elsewhere in stocks, Saxo Bank head of equity strategy Peter Garnry says that he sees a weaker euro offsetting some of the Italian situation's impact on European shares while noting that equities overall remain under pressure.
"We see emerging markets at risk and G10 macro still weak," says Garnry.
In technical terms, Larsson points to 2,742 and 2,800 as the key S&P 500 resistance levels and 7,000 as a potential ceiling for the Nasdaq.
Finally, Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen reports that extreme weather and heat are driving agricultural prices up while gold remains steady around $1,300/oz.
For more on the European Union, commodities, stocks, and the Fed Funds rate, watch today's Morning Call in full.
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.
Disclaimer