While the latest Chinese trade data published overnight showed what Saxo Bank Head of FX Strategy John Hardy terms a "respectable surplus" with exports up 6% year-on-year, the release is hardly a sign that the Sino-US trade war is a paper tiger.
"The situation in China is far from stable and we expect further escalation of the trade war," says Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry, adding that Chinese stocks fell another 1.6% overnight after rallying Tuesday.
"The Chinese appetite for commodities has not yet been meaningfully impacted by the trade war," says Saxo commodities head Ole Hansen, but like his SaxoStrats counterparts, Hansen remains of the view that the tariff-centred dispute will show up in later data releases.
In FX overnight, EURUSD and USDCAD posted bounces while EURGBP hit a new 2018 high on Brexit fears.
In commodities, Hansen points to the US Energy Information Administration lowering its US production growth forecasts for both 2018 and 2019 due to bottleneck issues, while Peter Garnry reports that Tesla shares are up 11% on a new secured funding plan (contingent on shareholder approval) announced by Elon Musk that would take the company private at a bill of $420/share.
For more on equities, forex, and commodities, as well as China, Tesla, and trade, watch today's Morning Call in full.
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.