The forex space into today's European open sees a soft euro, comparative USD strength by default, and the CNY trading in a 6.844-6.86 range overnight, reports Saxo Bank Head of FX Strategy John Hardy.
"We also saw a pronounced spike in the Turkish lira, which pushed through the 5.40 area versus USD overnight," says Saxo's forex chief.
Down under, the AUD maintains a bid despite no real support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting and statement.
In stocks, Saxo equities head Peter Garnry says the rebound in Chinese shares overnight does not shift the overall narrative with trade war fears and higher USD rates still dominant in APAC.
"The bears remain in control [of the Chinese stock market]," Garnry concludes.
In commodities, Saxo head of Commodity Strategy OIe Hansen reports that the strike action threatened at the world's largest copper mine in Chile may have been averted. "BHP Billiton has apparently blinked," Hansen says, adding that a five-day mediation session is set to follow.
Finally, Saxo technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson says that the S&P 500 appears poised for a move on its all-time high.
For more on stocks, FX, commodities, and technical analysis, watch today's Morning Call in full.
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.