Saxo Spotlight: What’s on the radar for investors and traders for the week of 7-11 Nov? US CPI and midterms, China reopening chatter and more earnings
APAC Strategy Team
Summary: The October US CPI release this week will be key to watch after Fed’s hawkish shift last week. Market pricing for December’s Fed rate hike is closer to 50bps for now, but a stronger than expected core print could move that towards another 75bps expectation. Midterm elections could also cause some volatility given the risk of policy paralysis if Democrats lose control of the Congress. More economic data is due, from UK’s Q3 GDP to China’s credit update and inflation, but a key driver of volatility will likely be further developments on China’s reopening story. In the commodities space, this means industrial metals, iron ore, copper, gold, energy and cotton are key to watch. The earnings calendar cools down, but keep Walt Disney and Adidas on your radar.
US inflation to test the 8% level, watch core and stickier components
Bloomberg consensus expects US October CPI to drop below the 8% mark and come in at 7.9% YoY from 8.2% previously, but still higher at 0.6% MoM from 0.4% in September. The core measure is also expected to ease slightly to 6.5% YoY, 0.5% MoM (prev. 6.6% YoY, 0.6% MoM) but still remain elevated compared to historical levels. Key to watch also will be the drivers of inflation, particularly the stickier shelter and services costs, which if stuck higher could move the December Fed funds future pricing more towards another 75bps rate hike, resulting in another round of selloff in equities and dollar gains. However, with another CPI report due before the next Fed meeting in December, market impact of this week’s report will likely remain restrained unless a major deviation from expectations is seen. For this week’s CPI data, we will be watching the USD, and bond yields, which may be expected to rally up if the data is hotter than expected.
What next for the China reopening chatter, and what does that mean for commodity markets?
Last Saturday, China’s National Administration of Disease Control and Prevention reiterated China’s adherence to the dynamic zero-Covid policy but at the same time pledged to improve the implementation of the policy so as to avoid massive and protracted lockdowns. Investors will focus on if subtle relaxation of implementation will gather momentum in the coming weeks. This will be key not just for mainland/HK markets, but also for commodity markets. The biggest impact will be seen on industrial metals (watch Copper, Iron ore) and energy prices, as China is the biggest consumer of such commodities. HG Copper broke through several resistances last week, but is seen lower back at $3.60 on Monday morning after Chinese officials hinted at adherence to the zero covid policy. Crude oil prices also remain on watch especially with OPEC+ production cuts set to take effect this month and upcoming EU sanctions against Russian oil, all leading to a tight market. Gold (XAUUSD) reversed its post-FOMC slump on China reopening optimism at the end of last week, and remains supported above $1670 for now. Will it break the short-term downtrend? Also worth watching Cotton, which bounced more than 20% from their low on signs of China’s improving yarn production, but still remains down on a YTD basis.
US mid-term elections this Tuesday
Pundits suggest that the Republicans have very strong odds of flipping the House of Representatives in their favour, while the odds look finely balanced for whether the Senate ends retaining the slimmest of Democratic majorities. Republicans taking both houses has few immediate ramifications, as US President Biden has the presidential veto, but a stronger than expected Democratic showing that somehow sees them retaining the House and strengthening their Senate majority would be a game changer – opening for more policy dynamism from the US over the next two years rather than the expected lame-duck presidency. Uncertainty is high as pollsters have had a hard time gathering accurate indications for the election results since Trump’s victory in 2016.
China is scheduled to release credit data, CPI, PPI, and trade data
Among the data scheduled to release this week, investors are likely to focus on the new RMB loans and aggregate financing numbers. After a very strong September in which banks were urged to lend, new RMB loans were expected to decelerate to RMB800 billion in October from RMB2,470 billion in September. New Aggregate Financing was forecasted to fall to RMB 1,600 billion in October from RMB 3,530 billion in September. On the inflation front, China’s PPI is expected to fall 1.6% Y/Y in October, due to the high base last year resulting from increases in material and energy prices. Unlike other major economies, CPI in China is expected to slow to 2.4% in October. On trade, while export growth in RMB terms is forecasted to rise to +12.7% YoY in October from +10.7% in September, exports in US dollar terms are expected to decelerate.
China’s Singles’ Day this Friday, Nov 11
Investors will watch closely Alibaba, JD.com, and other online retailers’ sales on Singles’ Day this Friday to gauge the strength of China’s private consumption. Analysts are expecting slower sales growth as recent data indicated slower user growth across online shopping platforms.
UK GDP to confirm the onset of a recession
On Friday, UK’s Q3 GDP is released and the first negative print of the current cycle is expected to be seen. Consensus forecast is seen at 2.1% YoY, -0.5% QoQ, significantly lower than the second quarter print of 4.4% YoY, 0.2% QoQ. August GDP data had already begun to show a negative print with -0.3% MoM and the trend will only likely get worse in September, exacerbated by a one-off factor relating to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral in the month, which was a national holiday. The economy is already facing a cost of living crisis, and both fiscal and monetary policy have to remain tight in this very tough operating environment. Technically, a recession may still be avoided as activity levels picked up in October, but still it will remain hard for the UK to dodge a recession going into 2023. This suggests more downside for the sterling may be in store, especially as the market refuses to cater to the Bank of England’s warning that the current expectations of terminal rate may be too steep.
Key Earnings to watch
Saxo’s Head of Equity Strategy, Peter Garnry, wrote the following, for key focus areas for corporate earnings this week. On Monday our focus is Activision Blizzard which is struggling with negative top-line growth like the rest of the gaming industry as the pandemic boom is over. Analysts are expecting revenue growth of -17% y/y and EPS of $0.50 down 39% y/y. Walt Disney is next week’s biggest earnings release scheduled on Tuesday with analysts expecting Q4 (ending 30 September) revenue growth of 15% y/y but EBITDA at $3bn down from $3.86bn in Q3 highlighting the ongoing margin pressure. Adidas, reporting on Wednesday, is also key due to its size in consumer goods but also because of its costly partnership breakup with Ye; analysts estimate revenue growth up 13% y/y but EPS at €1.24 down 47% y/y due to one-off items. On Thursday, we will focus on ArcelorMittal, because Europe’s largest steelmaker is an important macro driver, and analysts are getting increasingly negative on the steel industry expecting ArcelorMittal to announce a 14% drop in Q3 revenue and a 66% drop in EPS. The week ends with Richemont expected to see revenue growth coming down fast to just 7% y/y in Q3.
Key company earnings releases
Monday: Westpac Banking, Coloplast, Ryanair, Activision Blizzard, BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, SolarEdge Technologies
Tuesday: Bayer, Deutsche Post, KE Holdings, Nintendo, Walt Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Lucid Group, DuPont
Wednesday: National Australia Bank, KBC Group, Genmab, Siemens Healthineers, E.ON, Adidas, Honda Motor, Coupang, Rivian Automotive, Roblox, DR Horton, Trade Desk
Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Fortum, Engie, Credit Agricole, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, SMIC, Nexi, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Becton Dickinson, NIO
Key economic releases & central bank meetings
Monday 7 November
China (Mainland) Trade (Oct)
Germany Industrial Production and Output (Sep)
Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct)
Indonesia GDP (Q3)
Tuesday 8 November
Japan BOJ Summary of Opinions (Oct)
Japan All Household Spending (Sep)
Eurozone Retail Sales (Sep)
Wednesday 9 November
Japan Current Account (Sep)
China (Mainland) CPI and PPI (Oct)
United States Wholesale Inventories (Sep)
Thursday 10 November
United States CPI (Oct)
United States Initial Jobless Claims
China (Mainland) M2, New Yuan Loans, Loan Growth (Oct)
Friday 11 November
New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Germany CPI (Oct, final)
United Kingdom monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services and Construction Output (Sep)
United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance (Sep)
United Kingdom GDP (Q3, prelim)
United Kingdom Business Investments (Q3)
United States UoM Sentiment (Nov, prelim)
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.