Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week? CPI, FOMC Minutes & Earnings season Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week? CPI, FOMC Minutes & Earnings season Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week? CPI, FOMC Minutes & Earnings season

Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week? CPI, FOMC Minutes & Earnings season

Macro 4 minutes to read
APAC Strategy Team

Summary:  It will be a huge week for markets with, with equities on a knife edge awaiting key US CPI data and quarterly earnings season kicking off. Without the star-Energy earnings this season, what can you expect? Plus, on the macro front; US inflation data is out on Thursday, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes, which could set the path ahead for US yields and the US dollar. China releases its CPI and financing data, with both expected to rise. In Singapore Q3 GPD data is on tap, while Australia’s economic calendar is light, the focus is on Australian corporate AGMs.

US CPI key this week, Fed minutes also due

US inflation data out on Thursday be the next catalyst to test the Fed’s pivot narrative, and the path ahead for US yields and US dollar. Headline inflation is expected to fall slightly but stay above 8%. Bloomberg consensus expectations are at 8.1% y/y from 8.3% y/y in August, but the m/m print is expected higher at 0.2% from 0.1% previously. The core measure is also likely to swell further, and come in at 6.5% y/y from 6.3% in August. While market reaction to CPI print cannot be ignored as pricing for Fed’s path remains volatile, Fed members have been clear about their intent to keep rates high until inflation comes down materially. This suggests that even if we see further rate cut pricing for 2023, we will get a stronger pushback from Fed members and the markets will need to revise their thinking eventually. FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Thursday October 13, from the September 21 meeting and will likely continue to send out hawkish signals.

China’s aggregate financing data is expected to rise in September

China’s New loans, aggregate financing, and money supply data are scheduled to release sometime in this week.  The median forecast of RMB new loans in September as per Bloomberg’s survey is RMB1,800 billion, much above the RMB1,250 billion in August and the RMB1,660 billion a year ago in September 2021. New aggregate financing in September is expected to rise to RMB2,750 billion from RMB2,430 billion in August, but below the RMB2,903 billion in September 2021. The instructions as well as window guidance from the regulators to urge banks to lend to infrastructure projects and industries deemed important to the real economy were likely to have lifted the amount of new loans. 

China’s CPI is expected to rise in September

China is releasing CPI and PPI data on Friday. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey is expecting the CPI to rise to 2.9% Y/Y in September from 2.5% Y/Y in August.  The rise is likely to attribute to higher food prices, including pork prices during the month.  PPI is expected to fall to 1.0% Y/Y in September from 2.3% in August, helped by a high base last year. 

Singapore’s Q3 GDP and MAS policy decision due this week

Singapore reports advance estimate of Q3 GDP, along with the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) policy decision, on October 14. Bloomberg estimates suggest some weakening, with the median consensus estimate at 3.4% y/y, from GDP growth of 4.4% y/y in the second quarter. However, q/q growth is expected to turn positive at 0.7% from -0.2% previously, thereby avoiding a technical recession. Inflation, meanwhile, has breached the 7%-mark and broad-based price pressures mean higher-for-longer inflation. This suggests MAS will continue to tighten the monetary policy, and a re-centring of the S$NEER policy band to its prevailing level can be expected. Still, the boost to the SGD may remain limited as potentially more USD gains remain likely for now. If the MAS increases the slope of the band also alongside, that could mean slightly more hawkishness suggesting some near-term gains in SGD.

Earnings season kicks off; Here is what to expect this week

US Q3 earnings reporting season kicks off this week with several leading US banks revealing results on Friday. The market will focus on JPMorganChase (JPM:xnys), Morgan Stanley (MS:xnys) and Citigroup (C:xnys). The key things to watch are the investment banks ability to increase their net interest margin and if the quality of their loan books have deteriorated or improved. Consumer brands such as Pepsi (PEP:xnas), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA;xnas), and Delta Air Lines (DAL:xnys) will also be important earnings to watch, which will give clues as to how the consumer is spending amid the cost-of-living crisis.

The three major themes to watch this US Corporate earnings season

Firstly; it’s important to reflect that this year the Energy sector has delivered the strongest earnings growth (in Q1 and Q2), which has held up overall S&P500 earnings figures. But now, Q3 Energy earnings will likely buck that trend; with oil earnings likely to fall after the oil price pulled back with the WTI price falling about 24% from July to September. Last week, Shell highlighted it’s bracing for profit-hits from lower refining margins; which could also signal the end of rising profits from oil giants overall in Q3. Shell expects its oil-refining margin to nearly halve to $15 a barrel in the Q3, from $28 a barrel in the prior quarter. Shell is one of the most traded stocks at Saxo this month, with the majority of its transactions last week being sells and or shorts. (For a technical on Shell, click here.) But weaker earnings for energy for one quarter, don’t spell the end of a trend necessarily. So far this month, and quarter (Q4), the oil price has risen ~13%. So if oil continues to move up amid the lack of oil supply fears, Q4 could earnings for energy could shine once more (if oil moves up for the rest of the year that is). Secondly, the other likely theme to play out in Q3, will also be a drop in overall earnings caused by a higher US dollar, and higher wages. Thirdly, unrealistic earnings expectations might not be met  as well, with ‘negative surprises’ to pop up everywhere, as written by Peter here. And finally, when it comes to earnings season, keep in mind a company’s shares can often move if their earnings results and outlook is stronger than expected, or weaker than expected. So keep abreast of the latest Saxo insights.


Key economic releases & central bank meetings this week


Monday, Oct 10

  • US: Columbus Day - bond markets closed (stock markets opened)
  • Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct)
    Japan: Health-Sports Day holiday

Tuesday, Oct 11

  • US: New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
  • US: 3-year treasury note auction
  • UK: Labour Market Report (Sep)
  • Japan: Current Account (Aug)
  • Japan: Current Economic Conditions

Wednesday, Oct 12

  • US: PPI (Sep)
  • US: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (Oct)
  • US: 10-year treasury note auction
  • US: FOMC Minutes (Sep)
  • UK: Monthly GDP (Aug)
  • UK: Industrial Production (Aug)
  • Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug)
  • Japan: Machinery Orders (Aug)
  • Korea: Bank of Korea meeting
  • India: CPI (Sep)
  • India: Industrial Production (Aug)

Thursday, Oct 13

  • US: Jobless claims (weekly)
  • US: CPI (Sep)
  • US: 30-year bond auction
  • Germany: CPI (Sep-final)
  • Japan: PPI (Sep)

Friday, Oct 14

  • US: Retail Sales (Sep)
  • US: U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Oct-preliminary)
  • Japan: M2 (Sep)
  • China: PPI (Sep)
  • China: CPI (Sep)
  • China: Trade Data (Sep)
  • Singapore: Monetary Authority of Singapore meeting
  • Singapore: GDP (Q3)

Sometime in the week

  • China: Aggregate Financing (Sep)


Key company earnings releases this week


  • Wednesday: Pepsi (PEP:xnas)
  • Thursday: Progressive (PGR:xnys), Fast Retailing (9983:xtks), Trivago (TRVG:xnas), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA;xnas), Fastenal (FAST:xnas) , BlackRock (BLK:xnys), Delta Airlines (DAL:xnys), Domino’s Pizza (DOM:xlon)
  • Friday: Shanghai Putailai New Energy (603659:xssc), YTO Express (06123:xhkg), PNC Financial (PNC:xnys), JPMorganChase (JPM:xnys), Morgan Stanley (MS:xnys), Citigroup (C:xnys), UnitedHealth (UEEC:xnas), Wells Fargo (WFC:xnys), US Bancorp (USB:xnys) , First Republic Bank (FRC:xnyc)

For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.



Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.