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Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28... Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28... Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28...

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28...

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 28…
  • KVP is recovering from a phenomenal 4th of Jul steak & pasta dinner, which was more importantly shared with excellent company – nothing like good people & experiences… at the end of the day, everything else is noise. And yes, hopefully your loved ones & family are good people. Either way, KVP is enjoying some fasting to kick-off wk #28
  • What kind of week are you trying to create? Are you lining up the odds of life for you, or against you?
  • So this wk post the long wkd in the US, as well as last wk potent calendar which saw equities up by +4% in the shortened wk, plus a massive NFP number beat 4.8m a vs. 3.2m e is looking fairly quiet from a known unknowns basis.
  • Economics: Apart from ISM Non-Mfg. from the US later today, inflation out of China later this wk – its going to be a fairly light wk.  
  • Central Banks: RBA Tue, which if you recall at the last meeting they were quite constructive about the economy & talked back previous dovishness that were seen in the depths of the Mar sell-off. Still worth remembering that RBA is conducting YCC by keeping the 3yr at 25bp. For now the consensus view is set at no change at 0.25%. We also have a rate decision out of Malaysia, where the mkt is expecting a 25bp cut to 1.75%   
  • Fed Speak: Not as much as last wk, yet we have Bostic set to speak thrice. As well as Daly & Barkin.
  • Holidays: SG is out on Fri 10th Jul, due to election day.
  • US: ISM non-mfg 50.0e 45.4p, Services PMI 47.0e 46.7p, JOLTS, Crude Oil Inv., Jobless Claims, PPI, WholeSale Inv.
  • CH: CPI 2.5% 2.4%p, PPI -3.2%e -3.7%p, Money Supply, New Loans
  • EZ: GER Factory Orders, Sentic Conf., Retail Sales, GER IP, Eurogroup Meetings
  • JP: Avg. Cash Erns, Leading Indicators, current Account, Machinery Orders, PPI  
  • UK: Construction PMI, House Equity Withdrawal, House Prices, CB Leading Index
  • AU: RBA, MI inflation Gauge, AIG Serv. Index,
  • NZ: ANZ cmd prices, Milk Auction, ANZ Biz Conf.  
  • CA: BoC Biz Outlook Survey, Ivey PMI 50.2e 39.1p, Housing Starts, Jobs Data

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Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q2

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  • Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo

    Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.

    Read article

  • FX: The rate cut race shifts into high gear

    As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.

    Read article

  • Equities: The AI and obesity rally is defying gravity

    Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.

    Read article

  • Fixed income: Keep calm, seize the moment

    With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.

    Read article

  • Commodities: Is the correction over?

    Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.

    Read article
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