Macro Dragon:  WK#16 - US in today, most of world out Macro Dragon:  WK#16 - US in today, most of world out Macro Dragon:  WK#16 - US in today, most of world out

Macro Dragon: WK#16 - US in today, most of world out

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: WK#16 - US in today, most of world still out

Folks as a pin going forward during this turbulent times, let us please remember:

The Covid-19 crisis with all its challenges, stress, chaos & opportunities will also eventually pass. What defines humanity & ourselves as individuals is how we both individually & collectively act under adversity. Think of how you want to look back over this period, doing your part to keep your family healthy, society healthy & functioning. Keeping a cool head, when others are losing theirs, maintaining an objective list of positive aspects & negative aspects of the policy responses & economic shock the world is / could go through. And lastly gratitude, sympathy & empathy for one another. Parts of Asia got / are getting through this & so too shall the RoW.

The one big positive from all this, is it reminds us we are all One. Plus we are not at the top of the food chain. Covid-19 does not care if you are rich, poor, what your ethnicity & skin color are, what passport/s you hold, nor what you age or profession is. Our greatest achievements are almost always those that we collectively do with others & sometimes as in this case, potentially as species.

Lastly keep your mind open to growth & opportunities.


Top of Mind…

  • For some of us the Easter wkd is over, as the US gets back in today – yet for most of the world (HK, NZ, AU, CA, DK, EZ), today is still a holiday & they will not be back in until Tue
  • Asia morning so far has started out with US futures down a little over -1% at 2749… normally this would be key… yet given the swings we have been having over the last few wks, one needs to get ± 3-5% to really warrant significance on equity indice moves
  • Still – worth bearing in mind another epic US session last wk, where over 4 days the SPX rose +12%, eclipsing the mar wk where it rose +10% - marking the best wk then, since 1938
  • S&P cash is now “only” -14% YTD as of Friday’s close. Technically this is a MASSIVE lvl, as it marks a 50% retracement lvl form the 2192 lows. The moves from the low – even for a bear market regime (assuming that is still where we are, KVP continues to think so) – have been spectacular, with a +25% uplift from the lows
  • The bears will say this is it, this is where you go pile on the shorts big time, potentially having a stop above the 61.8% lvl of 2935 (next big resistance lvl), & be targeting the 2650 (38.2%) & 2475 (23.6%) lvls
  • The bulls will argues the opposite, this is where you double your position with a stop just under the 2650 lvl & target the 2935 & 3110. They will say that technically we have advanced out of the bear-market given the +20% run. Those wanting bigger positions & hence tighter stops could place them at c. 2560, just south of the lows of last wk at 2574
  • So apart from the new wk always brining opportunities & challenges needing solutions, what can we expect for wk 16?
  • There will be a lot of “The Future is Already Here” data points, i.e. econ data that we know should be Chiwawa poop abysmal – so not sure any news there, either way watch out for:
  • CH: 1Q GDP out of China, -6.0%e +6.0%p YoY, QoQ -11.2%e 1.5%p. KVP is no economist (thank god! I joke, I joke…), yet those figures don’t seem low enough for a country that pretty much shutdown to 0 activity for close to 4m. On that same Fri 17 Apr, we will get the usual monthly numbers – this time for Mar, so more relevant than Feb which was a wash. We got IP -9.9%e -13.5%p, RS -12.5%e -20.5%p, FAI -15.0%e -24.55p. Again being no economist (yet acting like one), let me propose that we could see beats on IP & FAI. Right now given sentiment globally, any economic beat is likely positive (i.e. skew is towards a reaction from good data rather than bad). Before all this though, we should have Trade data due out on Tues, with export & import exceptions at -13.9% & -10.0%
  • US: Apparently Retails Sales are expected at -8.0%e vs. -0.5%p, these probably have elements of pre-lockdown & its like next months RS that are going to be extra Chiwawa. We also have empire state, capacity utilization, IP, Fed’s Beige Book (good one for overview of the country), Wed US Crude Oil Inventories are not critical with previous wk coming in at 15.2m (ATHs over last +10yrs), Thursday Jobless show (we’ve clocked +16m in last 3wks, it took us 2yrs to get to c. 10m post the GFC… granted a lot of the 16m jobs will come back… yet not all of them), Philly fed, Building Permits & Housing Starts
  • EZ: Regional CPIs out of GER & FRA, plus overall block CPI of 0.7% e/p headline & 1.0% e/p CORE
  • UK: Worth noting Bojo is out of hospital (good man), BoE Quarterly Bulletins & Credit Conditions Survey, BRC Retail Sales Monitor
  • CA: BoC meeting, mfg. sales, ADP Non-Farm
  • AU: MI Inflation Expectations, Employment Change -30.0k e 26.7k p, 5.4% e 5.1% p
  • NZ: Visitor travels… You know KVP, just had to put that one in there!
  • Other: Worth noting there are IMF mtgs these coming wkd, which are likely going to focus on the plight of EMs amidst Covid-19



We could continue to be in a gang buster period of volatility both to the up & down side until at least mid-Apr to back-end of May. Some, time decay is needed in the system, both from a Covid-19 spread (past peak velocity upwards), even bigger & even better government / fiscal / monetary policy response, to overall heads of governments giving this the 2nd & 3rd order consequences thinking that it needs. This to shall pass. Keep you minds & hearts open.  

Key thing that KVP is trying to figure out is, how much of the economic fall-out & massive unemployment is correctly priced in – seems ludicrous to run on a V-shaped economic recovery across all sectors.

Good luck to everyone out there, be nimble & position accordingly.  




Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.