Macro Dragon WK 16: Calm & Dangerous... Macro Dragon WK 16: Calm & Dangerous... Macro Dragon WK 16: Calm & Dangerous...

Macro Dragon WK 16: Calm & Dangerous...

Macro 8 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon WK # 16: Calm & Dangerous...

Top of Mind…

  • TGIM & welcome to WK #16…

  • So Powell over the WK on CBS’s 60 mins, pretty much saying expecting US economy to get hotter, yet they are going to be accommodative – as he see’s a risk where a faster reopening also coincides with a resurgence in Covid infections

  • From KVP’s standpoint, we are likely not going to see Powell saying…

  • “Hey I think we were a touch conservative on moving in 2023/2024 back in the midst of the sell-off (as should always be the case)… & we are likely going to adjust our targets at either the Jun 16 or Sep 22 quarterly forecast meetings…”

  • Yet that’s what the Macro Dragon is picking up between the lines…

  • For the rest cross-assets wise, nothing screaming out on the Macro Dragon – most things seems to be either in consolidation, or within recent trading ranges. With the one exception of US equities in the form of the S&P 500 breaking higher, as it should in an asset inflationary world.

  • From a Currency, Commodity & Bonds perspective, waiting for trading range tops & bottoms to be challenged – whilst trying to anticipate what could be the next trigger that moves us from the market feeling “priced in” to new signal for a “repricing” one way or another. Still EURUSD back over 1.1900 recently? "Hogg wash me thinks"…

  • On single stock names, there are always opportunities – yet even there most things on our radar seem to be consolidating… everything else being equal, this tend to be bullish given the underlying convexity of the asset class.

  • Whilst the Macro Dragon’s creed is that there are always opportunities – there are also times to make money & times to sit tight, Calm & Dangerous, waiting for the right opportunities to present themselves.

  • For now, KVP tactically remains in the latter camp. Strategically, KVP remains constructive on equities as a whole – yet will point out once again that the surface of the equity market, does not highlight the divergences within sectors (positive & negative yield sensitive sectors, i.e. financials & insurers vs. say utilities & healthcare, value vs. growth, etc.).

2Q SaxoStrats Outlook

Rest of the Week & Other Reflections

  • From a central bank perspective globally, likely the biggest focus from a Macro perspective, will be the central bank rate decision out of Turkey this Thu – given Erdogan’s sacking of the previous governor that had overseen over 850 bp in hikes.

  • Economists are expecting the central bank to hold rates at 19.00% e/p, yet given the new governor seems to be an Erdogan pawn – one should not be surprised if we see a major reversal in tightening of policy, despite a ‘business as usual’ set of rhetoric.

  • Worth noting USDTRY has moved from 7.2185 (prior to the sacking of the previous governor, to the current 8.1780 lvls. That’s a +13% move in just the spot price in c. 3wks.  Its one of the few currencies that has broken out of recent trading ranges.

  • Another focus will be earnings now that 1Q is under the belt, as is usually the case the financials will lead the pack. So watch out for some of the usual suspects including Goldman, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America, etc. Generally speaking KVP is bullish on higher yields, which means he’s bullish on financials, yet feels insurers are in a sweater spot.

  • Coinbase (crypto exchange) is also set to list this wk, which judging from its c. +$1bn in revenue a year is a legit business that once again underlines that crypto, blockchain & digital assets are here to stay.

  • Econ wise US inflation (2.5%e 1.7%p, 1.5%e 1.3%p), retail sales, Beige Book, Housing Data & Capacity Utilization will give us clues as to the health & pace of the US economy, as well as vaccination drive.  

  • CH will have usual monthly growth numbers, as well as new loans & money supply figures due, in addition to the big kahuna data point of 1Q GDP 18.5%e 6.5%p (yes, that is due to the low base effects of 1Q20).

  • Europe data is light with regional + block CPI measures, IP for the block & German ZEW + 30yr bond auction on the docket.

  • Canada get the BoC Business Outlook Survey today. We have business confidence surveys due out of Australia & New Zealand, in addition to Aussie jobs data on Thu.

  • CBs: New Zealand 0.25%e/p, Turkey 19.00%e/p & South Korea 0.50%e/p.

  • Fed: Lots of Fed speak this wk, yet key focus will be Powell on Wed speaking at the Economic Club of Washington. Clarida is also set to speak twice this wk on Thu.

  • Lagarde due to speak on Wed.  

  • Hols: No major mkt hols this wk.
  • Dragon Interviews U-Tube Channel for easier play-ability…


Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.

This is The Way




Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.