Market Quick Take - August 12, 2021 Market Quick Take - August 12, 2021 Market Quick Take - August 12, 2021

Market Quick Take - August 12, 2021

Macro 6 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  The S&P 500 reached a fresh record high, bonds and gold rallied while the dollar softened after inflation moderated last month, thereby reducing concerns about the urgency for tapering the Fed's stimulus program. The Nasdaq 100 trades lower on a continued growth to value rotation. Oil rose as the dollar weakened despite Washington urging OPEC+ to revive production more quickly to curb prices. Stocks in Asia traded mixed overnight with Chinese regulators taking a closer look at insurance technology platforms while calls for a PBoC rate cut grew to counter negative impact of virus outbreaks.

What is our trading focus?

Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - yesterday’s CPI report failed to be a spectacular and game changing event for markets. US inflation remains high, but it is not getting worse, and the low inflation observed in the US and Japan begs the question whether the US is an outlier. US yields are coming down a bit but interestingly enough Nasdaq 100 futures are under pressure trading below the 15,000 level this morning while the S&P 500 looks much stronger and closer to its all-time high. The next key support level in Nasdaq 100 is around the 14,895 level.

EURUSD managed to bounce higher from key support at €1.17, the March 31 low, following softer-than-expected US inflation data. Overall, the cross may now be looking at the support-turned-resistance level at €1.1752.

Gold (XAUUSD) found a bid after moderating US inflation eased taper fears while also softening the dollar. The sentiment remains fragile, and the market may still trade nervously ahead of the late August gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, a forum often used to announce pivotal changes. In the short term, the yellow metal needs a solid break above $1760 to ease worries and potentially force buying from recent short sellers. Key for bulls is to see ten-year real yields stay in the region of –1% and avoid further dollar strength. (Note: EURUSD managed to hold key €1.17 level yesterday).

Crude oil (OILUKOCT21 & OILUSSEP21) is holding onto yesterday's gains that were driven by a weaker dollar and growing belief the demand rebound can withstand the latest wave of Covid-19, that has led to renewed restrictions of movements. An announcement from Washington’s urging OPEC+ to revive production faster to curb rising gasoline prices initially sent prices lower before being ignored. Not least due to expectations gasoline prices will drift lower into the autumn and also considering the tightness in oil markets can be partly blamed on Biden’s reduce of support for domestic oil production, down close to 2 million barrels/day from the March 2020 peak. Focus today the monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC for any signs of changes in their demand outlook.

Corn, soybeans and to a lesser extent wheat trade lower before a key monthly supply and demand report (WASDE) from the US government. This following a period of mostly rangebound trading in corn and soybeans on improved crop weather while wheat remains near its recent peak following downgrades in Russia and Europe. The USDA is expected to trim its corn yield by 2.1 bu/acre to 177.4, and with that the expected production level is surveyed to decline by 194 million bu to 14,970 million. If confirmed the market will remain tight with little room another South American weather upset into 2022.

What is going on?

US ten-year bond yields firmed overnight after moderating inflation and a very strong bond auction helped trigger an intraday 7 basis point yield drop to 1.3% before firming in Asia. Overall, it looks unlikely that these two developments can derail the current momentum towards higher yields, especially considering the late August gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, a forum often used to announce pivotal changes. The key level of resistance in ten-year remains 1.37%, yesterday’s high and the 38.2% retracement of the March to July yield slump.

Recap of earnings from Vestas, NIO, and eBay. Vestas disappointed investors yesterday cutting revenue guidance for FY21 and lowering EBIT margin guidance on higher-than-expected commodity prices such as steel. Vestas shares were down 2%. NIO reported 21,896 deliveries of its EVs a 9% q/q increase and reported revenue of CNY 8.5bn vs est. 8.3bn. Gross margin for the quarter was 18.6% vs est. 19%. Despite mixed earnings the Q3 revenue guidance of CNY 8.9-9.6bn vs est. 8.9bn and lower Q2 loss sent the shares 3% higher in extended trading. EBay disappointed massively on active buyers with 159mn during the quarter compared to 172mn expected, but despite lower engagement revenue and earnings were slightly better than expected and guidance for Q3 was also in line. The company said it will expand its share buyback program.

Cryptocurrencies - After the major hacker attack on the Poly network on Tuesday where cryptos worth more than $600 mn were stolen, hackers have now returned around $250 mn. Some in the crypto community suggests that the hackers want to teach Poly a lesson regarding security issues in the network - and of course this underlines the increased security risks when digitalizing assets in general.

What are we watching next?

Earnings to watch this week. Q2 earnings have been strong we expect earnings releases this week to reflect this. Today is the big day with Orsted on the green transformation in Europe, Walt Disney on video streaming and its attack on Netflix with its Disney+ offering. We also have earnings from Baidu and iQIYI which are currently in the middle of the Chinese technology crackdown which is centered around information and communication platforms.

  • Today: Brookfield Asset Management, Orsted, Novozymes, China Mobile, Zurich Insurance, Walt Disney, Baidu, Palantir Technologies, XPeng, Li Auto, iQIYI
  • Friday: Deutsche Wohnen, NetEase, Group

Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT)


  • 0600 – UK Q2 GDP
  • 0600 – UK Jun Industrial Production
  • 0800 – IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
  • 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
  • 1230 – US Jul PPI
  • 1430 – EIA's Natural Gas Storage Change
  • During the day – OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:

Apple Sportify Soundcloud Stitcher


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.