Macro Monday (Week 24): Is it winter already?
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Saxo Head of APAC macro strategy Kay Van-Petersen looks at his cross-asset forecast for the week ahead as the chill winds of trade wars and global economic growth worries chip away at prices and sentiment.
How do changes in US real yields impact asset classes?
Falling US real yields have historically been coincident with rising gold, ringing EURUSD and falling USDJPY. These relationships are not that confusing but over time equities do have a positive relationship with real yields and as such equities should not behave as it does right now under rapidly falling real yields as they reflect falling expectations for growth. When we analyse the entire spectrum over change in US real yields we observe that equities rise rapidly under both significantly falling and rising real yields.
Chart of the Week : Sentix Break-Up Probability for Italy
Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.
Podcast: Positive start with continued focus on real yields
Equities are mostly positive today following a strong session in Asia after Trump issued executive orders over the weekend providing unemployed Americans with special unemployment benefits. We talk about real yields and how they are driving everything across equities and gold. We also talk about the ongoing recovery despite rising new cases of COVID-19 and the outlook for oil
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