Macro Brief: Neither good nor bad
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: Mixed updates from China suggests that economic improvement is underway but not forcefully so. Elsewhere the market seems unconvinced by the ECB's ability to address its mandate and in the US, GDP is likely to disappoint.
In addition, the ECB Watchers conference was a quite event. Mario Draghi tired to reassure investors by stating that the European Central Bank is “not short of instruments to achieve our mandate”. He mostly pointed out to easier TLTRO terms if needed and openly discussed the benefits and disadvantages of negative rates on the banking sector profitability. However, we doubt he really managed to convince traders and investors that the ECB is well-equipped to face the coming recession.
Today’s market session includes a myriad of central bankers’ speeches and a lot of indicators, but the focus should be the third estimate of the US Q4 GDP. The consensus expects that GDP will reach 2.4% QoQ SAAR versus previous at 2.6% and personal consumption at 2.6%. However, investors should be ready to face a more disappointing print. At Saxo, we consider that there is a high risk of downward revisions of consumption and residential investment in Q4 that could push GDP lower, around 2.1-2.2%.
Today’s Calendar (All Times GMT)
9:10 ECB, De Guindos’ speech
12:30 USA, Q4 GDP
13:00 Germany, CPI
15:00 USA, Manufacturing survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
17:15 Fed, Williams’ speech
21:20 Fed, Bullard’s speech
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.