Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 December 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 December 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 December 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 December 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  Wall Street succumbed to end of year profit taking on Wednesday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 1.5% despite an ongoing rally in Treasuries that saw yields fall across the curve. Following an almost uninterrupted two-week winning streak it is only natural to see investors trim positions ahead of a very quiet period across markets. An aftermarket surge in Micron Technology helped steady the ship with both indices trading higher overnight thereby limiting losses in Asia that was led by a drop in the Nikkei index amid fresh yen strength and after a safety scandal hurting Toyota. Ahead of Friday’s PCE inflation print the market will be entertained by US jobless claims and US Q3 GDP.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: The US equity market rally reeled a bit yesterday declining but US equity futures are rebounding in early trading hours. Liquidity is coming down a lot these days and the VIX Index remains below 14 indicating the equity market will likely cruise into the new year. Micron Technology shares rose 4% in extended trading as the memory chip maker earnings beat on revenue and earnings while lifting the current quarter revenue figures well above consensus estimates suggesting growth is rebounding in consumer electronics.

FX: An ongoing decline in Treasury yields helped support a rebound in the yen with USDJPY falling to around 142.80 in Asia while Sterling plunged with the GBPUSD declining to 1.2630 after UK inflation slowed more than expected in November. Overall, the dollar trade nearly unchanged on the week with losses in JPY, KRW and GBP being offset by gains in CHF, EUR and AUD.

Commodities: Brent eased back below $80 with the softness being led by WTI after the EIA report an across the board increase in stocks and after US production hit a fresh record high at 13.3m b/d, a 1.2m b/d YoY increase. Meanwhile, the US took some of its strongest steps yet to enforce a price cap on Russian oil, targeting for the first-time crude traders and a state-backed shipping giant as it seeks to pressure Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Gold trades lower after failing to challenge resistance in the $2050 area with continued albeit small selling of ETFs also weighing. Focus on Friday’s PCE print, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Corn holds a six-week low as ample US supply weighs on prices

Fixed income: Treasuries rallied on Wednesday, with yields falling across the yield curve. The 10-year yield, down 8bps to 3.85%, reached levels last seen in July. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield dropped by 11bps to 4.33%. This move was triggered by the 12bp drop in the 10-year UK Gilt yields following an unexpected 0.2% month-on-month contraction in the U.K. CPI. Overnight saw yields move a tad higher.

Macro: U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence jumped to 110.7 in November from 102.0 in October, surpassing 104.5 projected in consensus estimates. U.S. existing home sales increased 0.8% M/M to 3.82 million, higher than 3.78 million expected. Supply of existing homes remains tight at 3.5 months. U.K. CPI unexpected dropped by 0.2% M/M in November versus consensus +0.1%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI growth slowed to 3.9% in November from 4.6% in October, below 4.3% expected. Core CPI slowed to 5.1% Y/Y from 5.7% vs median estimate 5.6%.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 correction likely to 4,600, uptrend intact. Nasdaq 100 took out all-time high now correction, likely to 16,140. DAX top and reversal pattern correction likely, support at 16,528 and 16,060. EURUSD likely to testing key resistance at 1.10 once again. USDJPY range bound 141.70- 145.00 likely. AUDJPY rejected at 97,50, could test support at 96.10. Gold potential to 2,070.  WTI Crude oil rebound rejected at 75 but could move to 77, Brent maybe to 82. US 10-year T-yields below support at 3.95 next support at 3.83    

In the news: Bond market rally drives yields past Wall Street’s end-2024 targets ($FT), Toyota shares slump on safety scandal at Daihatsu, vehicle recall (Reuters), Tesla Skips Merit-Based Stock Awards, Squeezing Compensation (Bloomberg), Google Plans Ad Sales Restructuring as Automation Booms (The Information), Micron revenue forecasts strong recovery, shares jump (Reuters), Tesla blamed drivers for failures of parts it long knew were defective (Reuters)

Macro events (all times are GMT): US 3Q GDP exp unchanged at 5.2% (1230), US Initial Jobless Claims, exp. 215k vs 202k prior (1230), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Dec) exp. -3 vs –5.9 prior (1230), EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change (1430), U.S. 5-year TIPS auction (1700)

Earnings events: Earnings releases today from CarMax, Paychex, Cintas, Carnival and Nike. Our focus is naturally on Nike reporting FY24 Q2 earnings (ending 30 November) tonight after the US market close with analysts expecting revenue growth of 1% y/y and EPS of $0.85 unchanged from a year ago.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.