Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 26 June 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 26 June 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 26 June 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 26 June 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Key points:

  • Equities:Another strong session in Japan. Nvidia rebounds after rout. Focus on FedEx post strong earnings outlook.

  • Currencies:AUD receives a boost from strong CPI print

  • Commodities:Oil awaits weekly stock report, precious metals lower ahead of US PCE

  • Fixed Income: Inflation remains a focus while the U.S. Treasury prepares to sell 5-year notes.

  • Economic data: US new home sales

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

In the news: Nvidia’s half-a-trillion dollar wipeout leaves global chip stocks volatile (CNBC), FedEx stock surges as profit forecast tops analyst expectations (Investing), Rivian stock surges 36% after announcing $5 billion joint venture with Volkswagen (Investing), Australia's central bank says policy is restrictive, causing households pain (Yahoo), Australia inflation jumps to 6-mth high in May, ramps up rate hike risks (Yahoo), World headed for ‘food wars’ amid geopolitics and climate change, warns Olam (FT).

Equities:Third straight session of strong gains in Japanese equities up 1.4% in today’s Asia session. Futures are indicating European equities 0.6% higher on the open and US equities 0.1% higher. Nvidia will remain in focus today as the AI chipmaker rose 6.8% after three declining sessions taking the shares down 16%. Rivian and Volkswagen will also be in focus today as the German carmaker announces a $5bn investment into Rivian with shares rising 36% yesterday. FedEx shares rose 14% in extended trading as the logistics company reported a better-than-expected FY25 outlook on EPS at $20-22 vs est. $20.85 and announced expectations of buying back own shares worth $2.5bn. The capex outlook for FY25 was also lower than estimated suggesting lower reinvestments are needed to sustain growth which is net positive for shareholder creation.

Macro:US consumer confidence surpassed expectations as it printed 100.4 in June (exp. 100.0), albeit falling from the prior, revised lower, 101.3. Present Situation index rose to 141.5 (prev. 140.8), however the forward-looking Expectations Index dipped to 73.0 from 74.9. Canada's CPI came in hotter-than-expected, leaving the Bank of Canada's July rate cut hanging in the balance. Headline CPI rose +0.6% MoM (exp. 0.3%) and 2.9% YoY (exp. 2.6%) while the core trimmed mean came in at 2.9% YoY from 2.8% previously and expected. Fed Governor Lisa Cooksaid that policy is well positioned to respond to the economic outlook, and at some point, it will be appropriate to cut rates, but the timing will depend on the data. Michelle Bowman stressed the Fed is not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates, noting the baseline outlook continues to be inflation will return to 2% with the policy rate held steady for some time. She said that she does not see 2024 rate cuts. Australia’s inflation accelerated faster than expected for a third straight month in May, sending the AUD higher as traders increased bets that the Reserve Bank will resume raising interest rates at its next meeting. The monthly consumer price indicator climbed 4% from a year earlier, exceeding economists’ estimate of 3.8%, while the trimmed mean core measure, which smooths out volatile items, advanced to 4.4% versus 4.1% a month earlier.

Macro events (times in GMT):US New Home Sales (May) exp 633k vs 634k prior (1400), EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (1430), US auction of USD 70 bln 5-year Notes (1700)

Earnings events: Today’s key earnings release is Micron Technology expected to report FY24 Q3 (ending 31 May) revenue growth of 78% YoY and EBITDA of $2.9bn vs $278mn a year ago. The cycle for memory chips has changed with supply having become tighter and pricing is increasing making us to believe that Micron could surprise to the upside against analyst expectations.

  • Today: Vantage Towers, Micron Technology, Paychex, General Mills

  • Thursday: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Nike, H&M, McCormisk

  • Friday: Geely Automobile

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar

Fixed incomeInflation in Canada unexpectedly rose to 2.9% in May, contrary to the consensus expectation of a drop to 2.6% from 2.7% the previous month. This unexpected increase has reignited concerns that central banks' battle against inflation is far from over, causing bond yields to fluctuate between gains and losses on both sides of the Atlantic. By the end of the day, U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher across the curve, with 10-year yields closing at 4.24% and 2-year yields at 4.74%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury auction saw strong demand, closing with an increase in indirect bidder participation. German 10-year yields closed relatively unchanged at 2.41%, while French and Italian 10-year yields settled at 3.17% and 3.93%, respectively. Today, the market's attention shifts to the 5-year U.S. Treasury auction.

CommoditiesOil prices fell from an eight-week high on Tuesday with demand concerns in China, where refinery runs according to Goldmans has fallen to a 20-month low, being offset by multiple geopolitical tensions and expectations for strong summer demand elsewhere. Ahead of today’s EIA data, the API reported a weekly stock increase of 0.9mn barrel. Precious metals, meanwhile, traded lower with silver falling back below $29 per ounce due to caution ahead of US inflation data, and continued uncertainty regarding the timing of the first US rate cut. Copper fell to a two-month low and key support, driven by technical selling and long liquidation from funds amid unusually weak Chinese demand.

FXRecent hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve provided a modest boost to the US dollar across various currency pairs. The EURUSD pair tested but did not sustain a break below the 1.07 level due to supportive buying, and uncertainties related to the French elections continue to underpin. The GBPUSD pair remained under pressure, trading below 1.27. In the Japanese yen space, intervention concerns persisted, keeping USDJPY below 160 while both AUDJPY and GBPJPY hit record highs at 106.80 and 202.88 respectively. The AUD rose to a two-week high CPI beat expectations, bolstering the case for the central bank to resume raising interest rates. The USDCAD pair resisted upward momentum and stayed below 1.3680, following an unexpected rise in Canadian inflation, which cast doubt on the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in July.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.