Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 3, 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 3, 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 3, 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 3, 2024

Macro 6 minutes to read
APAC Research

Key points:

  • Equities: Tesla surged 10.2% after exceeding delivery expectations
  • FX: Japanese yen slipped to new lows
  • Commodities: Oil and gold declined
  • Fixed income: US yields steady, Japan's bond yield rises
  • Economic data: US jobless claims, ISM services PMI


The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

QT 03 July

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Saxo’s Quarterly Outlook is out and can be accessed here.

The title is Sandcastle economics reflecting that the economy and financial markets look pretty with resilient growth and equities at an all-time high. We expect favourable market conditions to continue in Q3, but sandcastles are naturally fragile and thus our clients should be aware of the potential risks lurking around the corners ranging from geopolitics, US election in Q4, unsustainable fiscal trends, and demographics longer term.

In this Q3 Outlook, you can get our take on why European equities and short-duration quality bonds look interesting. You can also read why energy commodities may come in focus and where to look within forex.

In the news:

  • Tesla shares soar 10% on better-than-expected Q2 deliveries report (CNBC)
  • Polestar posts loss, plans steps to offset tariffs on China-made EVs (Reuters)
  • BYD sales rise to a record on price cuts, tech upgrades (Business Times)
  • Eli Lilly Alzheimer's drug approved by US FDA (Reuters)
  • DBS boosts digital asset push with first stablecoin tie-up (Business Times)
  • Powell says Fed has made ‘quite a bit of progress’ on inflation but needs more confidence before cutting (CNBC)


  • US JOLTS job openings rose to 8.140mln from the revised down 7.92mln and above the 7.91mln forecast. The quits rate was unchanged at 2.2%, while the vacancy rate ticked up to 4.9% from 4.8%.The slight increase in JOLTS shows the labour market remains strong which will make the Fed patient before cutting rates. The next focus point for the labour market will be the NFP report on Friday, and a preview is included here, but also Jobless Claims are due on Wednesday this week due to the July 4th Holiday on Thursday.
  • Fed Chair Powell spoke at the Sintra conference, where he noted the progress on disinflation but they need to be more confident before reducing policy rates. Comments tilted slightly more dovish than previously, but still very balanced. 
  • The RBA minutes from the June meeting (where the cash rate was held at 4.35%) revealed the Board judged the case for holding rates steady was stronger than hiking, although a hike might be needed if the board judged its policy was not sufficiently restrictive. With data suggestive of upside risk for May CPI, the minutes also unveiled that the recent data wasn't sufficient for the Central Bank to change its inflation target outlook for 2026.

Macro events: Riksbank Minutes (July), EZ Producer Prices (May), US Challenger Layoffs (June), US ADP National Employment (June), US Initial Jobless Claims (29 June), Durable Goods, Factory Orders Revised (May), ISM Services PMI (June)

Earnings: N/A

Equities: On Tuesday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs, gaining 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. The blue-chip Dow also rose by 162 points, driven by gains in megacap stocks. Investors reacted positively to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the latest job report. Sector-wise, consumer discretionary and financials led the gains, while the energy and health sectors lagged. Among the megacap stocks, Apple (+1.6%), Amazon (+1.4%), and Tesla (+10.2%) outperformed, with Tesla shares surging after surpassing delivery expectations. In contrast, Nvidia fell by 1.3% due to concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. Nikkei 225 rose 1.12% to 40,075, and the Topix Index gained 1.15% to 2,857. Japanese shares climbed for the third straight session, boosted by a weakening yen that benefits export-heavy industries.

Fixed income: The US 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.45% as markets assessed economic data and Fed commentary. The JOLTS report showed a rise in job openings for May, suggesting a tight labor market, but downward revisions limited the yield rebound. Markets still expect a Fed rate cut in September. In Japan, the 10-year bond yield rose to around 1.08% amid a weakening yen. Analysts suggest the BOJ might raise rates due to inflation from higher import costs. Japan's economy contracted at an annualized rate of 2.9% in Q1, worse than the previously reported 1.8%.

Commodities: Brent crude fell 0.4% to $86.24 per barrel, retreating from a two-month high. The decline was attributed to diminishing fears of supply disruptions from Hurricane Beryl, which is now expected to have minimal impact on offshore oil production. However, escalating Middle East tensions raised concerns of a broader conflict. U.S. gasoline demand is anticipated to peak this week due to Independence Day travel, with the American Automobile Association forecasting a 5.2% increase in holiday travel compared to 2023. Oil prices have been supported by OPEC+ extending output cuts until 2025. Gold price dropped 0.10% to $2,329.46 per ounce, despite easing interest rates following less hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive safe-haven demand, physical demand for gold remains somewhat subdued.

FX: The US dollar weakened marginally as Fed Chair Powell’s comments took comfort in disinflation, and hinted that rate cuts could come earlier this year if these trends were to continue. The weaker dollar saw high-beta currencies outperform, while Swiss franc and Japanese yen underperformed. The Japanese yen touched new lows despite the rise in Japan’s bond yields, heading to 161.74 against the US dollar. However any moves towards 165 will continue to increase intervention risks by Japanese authorities. The British pound was stronger going into the July 4 general elections, while the Australian dollar also gained with the RBA minutes from June meeting keeping an August rate hike in play.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.