Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Following the improvement of the ZEW poll of financial market experts last week and the Sentix index early this month, all the IFO indicators have increased in June on the back of fewer restrictions on economic activity. Both investors and business leaders have the same judgement regarding the economic situation in Germany, which doesn't happen as often as you might think.
The IFO business climate index is out at 86.2 in June vs 85.0 expected and prior 79.5. The assessment of the current situation has also improved at 81.3 vs 84.0 expected and prior 78.9. Looking at business expectations, we also notice a strong increase to 91.4 vs 87.0 expected and prior 80.1. The rebound in all the three main indicators was largely anticipated by market participants due to the lifting of lockdown measures in Germany, which explains the rather muted market reaction to the release. Though social distancing remains in place and that isolated clusters are emerging here and there, notably in Lower Saxony and in the town of Rheda-Wiedenbrueck where more than 1,500 workers have been infected, the health crisis seems contained and well-handled by the authorities which tends to have a positive effect on businesses’ assessment of the current situation and of expectations. It is also likely that the rapid policy response to the economic crisis, via a €130 billion stimulus package, played a key role in the current improvement.
In the below chart, we have plotted the business situation and the business expectation indices since 2005 to create the IFO clock. It is composed of four quadrants: upturn (on the top left), boom (on the top right), downturn (on the bottom right) and recession (on the bottom left). We observe a major and expected improvement compared with last month, but it remains deeply in recession territory, at a level worse than in 2010. In other words, this is no time for celebration, there is still a long way to go before confidence is back.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
