French Election Update: A crowded field of candidates French Election Update: A crowded field of candidates French Election Update: A crowded field of candidates

French Election Update: A crowded field of candidates

Macro
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  There is still plenty of time before the 2022 April French presidential election. But a growing number of candidates are lining up. According to our estimates, there are already 35 declared candidates. Certainly a dozen more will run for the election. Based on the polls, the likely outcome will be a replay of 2017 with a second round between President Emmanuel Macron and and far-right leader Marine Le Pen. It is still early and much more can happen in the coming months. It is not the time for ideas yet. However, some interesting economic proposals are floating, including a strong increase in the carbon tax.


French Election Preview published: We have recently published our preview for the 2022 April presidential election. It gives a broad overview of the current state of French politics and the main reforms which are currently put forward by the lead candidates. See here for the full report.

A crowded field of candidates: Eight months before the French presidential election, there are already 35 declared candidates. Over the past few days, former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and French entrepreneur Denis Payre announced they would participate in the centre-right camp’s probable primaries for the presidential election. The centre-right primaries are due in October or in November. Certainly a dozen more candidates will run for the presidential election. But few will be able to be listed on the first-round ballot. In the French political system, candidates need to secure a minimum of 500 sponsorships from national or local elected officials from at least 30 different departments or overseas collectivities, with no more than a tenth of these signatories from any single department. Between eight and ten candidates should finally be able to be listed on election day, in our view.

A replay of 2017: It is still early days. Much more can happen in the next eight months. But, at the moment, a Macron-Le Pen run off is the most likely scenario according to the polls. Despite all the challenges encountered over the past years, Macron’s approval rating remains high (see the below chart). In an Harris Interactive poll released on 25 August, Macron and Le Pen are still miles ahead of the pack in the first round, both at 24%. Former Sarkozy minister Xavier Bertrand, often presented as the third man of the election, is far behind at 16%. When he officially launched his campaign in March 2021, some believed that Bertrand could change the dynamics of the race. We don’t see the momentum on his side, based on the polls. His candidacy could even be threatened by that of another Sarkozy minister, Valérie Pécresse. Since 2015, she has served as President of the Regional Council of Île-de-France, the wealthiest French region. Both are ideologically close. 

Populism is back: The rise of a populist outsider is a growing risk. But we don’t think it can really affect the race at this stage. In the mentioned Harris Interactive poll, Eric Zemmour, a xenophobic TV columnist, gathers up to 7% of voting intentions against 5% in an IFOP poll released on 18 June. Zemmour is not a candidate yet. But he really seems to want to run. He is more radical than Le Pen and openly defends nationalist and anti-Muslim measures. He considers France is engaged into a civilization war against Islam. We don’t think he will make it to the election day. Perhaps he will be able to get the needed sponsorships to run. But a scandal can happen quickly. We think he will drop out of the race before the first round.

What the candidates are up to: It is not the time for the ideas yet. But two candidates have floatedtwo interesting economic propositions recently. Bertrand wants to cut taxes on production by half (~€33bn per year). This would increase business profitability and reduce the competitiveness gap between France and Germany in terms of taxes on production by two-third. Sandrine Rousseau, candidate to the Green party primaries, proposes to increase the carbon tax to Є200 per ton by 2030 against Є60 currently. This is the right price to spur climate innovation and technical progress and reduce CO2 emissions in the European Union. According to our estimates, it would induce an increase from current prices of Є0.375 per liter of retail gasoline if it were implemented today. This is politically manageable.

What to watch now: More candidates will line up for the election in the coming weeks. Former Hollande minister of the economy and industrial renewal, Arnaud Montebourg, is expected to officially announce his candidacy on 4 September. Paris’ Socialist mayor, Anne Hidalgo, will also officially launch her campaign, but later this year. In the short-term, the focus will be on the Green party primaries of 16-19 and 25-28 September. Five candidates are running. Afterwards, the winner might participate in a primary of the Left which would bring together the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, the Greens and the small Radical Party of the Left. Jean Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Insoumise has refused until now to participate.

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.