Chart of the Week: Mobility in DM and EM countries in the time of COVID-19 Chart of the Week: Mobility in DM and EM countries in the time of COVID-19 Chart of the Week: Mobility in DM and EM countries in the time of COVID-19

Chart of the Week: Mobility in DM and EM countries in the time of COVID-19

Macro
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance. This week, we look at mobility data released by Google in its COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. The data are available on Macrobond.


Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.

Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports are published on an ongoing basis, with the most recent statistics referring to the situation as it was two to three days ago (see here for further insights about the methodology).The two charts below show you the trend in terms of visits and length of stay in the retail and recreation sector at the end of last week both in developed and emerging markets. This sector is the most affected by the pandemic. It gives a real-time picture of the potential macroeconomic consequences of the re-introduction of restrictions in several countries to contain the spread of the variant Omicron.

Until one week ago, global mobility was generally improving. There was seasonal softness in Europe. But it was not worrying. European mobility was actually holding up relatively well. This was before the discovery of the new COVID variant Omicron. Mobility in Austria declined sharply following the re-introduction of a lockdown until 13 December. Visits to retail and recreation stores dropped 38% compared with the baseline in the week ending 26 November. Before the lockdown, mobility was low compared to other European countries. It was 18% below the baseline. The impact of the lockdown is, however, more limited than the lockdown which took place at the turn of the year in 2020. Mobility was down up to 73% in January 2021, for instance. In our sample for developed markets, Japan is the only country where mobility is back to pre-Covid level. From tomorrow, the country will close its borders to all foreigners again. But no further restrictions are introduced to limit mobility.

Europe is in a vulnerable position, in our view. The economic consequences of restrictions and lockdowns have diminished over time. But the continent is facing a perfect storm : the energy crunch, supply chain frictions, skyrocketing inflation and « pay me my worth » demands from workers on top of the fourth wave of the pandemic. GDP growth forecast in major European economies over the next three quarters has slowed over the last month, sliding to a six-month low in October. The risk of stagnation or recession has increased, especially for Austria and Germany. We are cautiously more optimistic for the other European economies. They seem less inclined to re-introduce strict restrictions and they are less exposed to the global trade turmoil. Think France or Italy.

In contrast, mobility in the largest emerging markets is back or above pre-COVID level. Taiwan is the only exception. Mobility was down 11% compared to the baseline in the week ending 26 November. The local policymakers and health authorities are reluctant to exit the zero COVID policy despite a very low number of new daily cases (12 cases on 26 November, for instance). Several emerging markets have been successful containing the recent evolution of pandemic until now (South Korea, India). Others are examples of « living with the virus » despite thousands of new cases daily and continuing deaths (South Africa, Brazil, Mexico). We have experienced the hard way that the situation can reverse fast with COVID. Uncertainties over the variant Omicron related to the transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness and risk for reinfections will push policymakers to be more careful than perhaps needed in the short term.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.