Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: A look at the BoE's response to the pandemic and the market reaction.
Beginning of February: First confirmed COVID cases in the United Kingdom.
March 11: The Bank of England decides to cut interest rate from 0.75% to 0.25% and to launch a term-funding scheme to support SMEs that can provide in excess of £100bn.
March 19: New interest rate cut to an historical low level of 0.10%. At the same time, the BoE steps in further by increasing U.K government bond purchases up to £200bn (with total QE program reaching £645bn).
April 9: The BoE implements temporary monetary financing of the government to fund the immediate cost of fighting the coronavirus without having to tap the gilts market (via the government’s bank account at the central bank, known as the “Ways and Means Facility”). The amount allocated to this new scheme is undisclosed.
June 18: As widely expected, the Bank of England beefs up the QE asset purchase program by £100bn – at the lower end of expectations - to a total of about £745bn. At constant path, the current program would have been exhausted in July. In addition, the main interest rate is maintained at 0.10%. The overarching message remains ultra-accommodative with indications of further measures to come to stimulate growth in H2 this year.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
