The G10 rundown
USD – the weakness getting sufficiently pronounced in places now to require attention – first pairs to threaten a larger move look like AUDUSD and USDCAD. Tomorrow’s US inflation data and Federal Open Market Committee minutes the possible deciders. (Still – look at how profoundly stuck we remain here after the hugely dovish March 21 dovish FOMC surprise.
EUR – some encouragement that the Eurozone growth slowdown is easing or turning the corner would be helpful and drive a solid rally in EURCHF and EURUSD. German 10-year Bund yields back at the pivotal 0 bps level.
JPY – if the USD is weak with a positive risk backdrop, the JPY may show little beta versus the US dollar as the market indulges in short JPY carry trades.
GBP – sterling going nowhere until we get clarity, and if becomes clear that we’ll suffer a further significant wait for the Brexit outcome, this could weigh on sterling across the board.
CHF – EURCHF looking higher, but needs to pull back above 1.1300 to argue for the end of the downside threat.
AUD – note AUDUSD discussion above. AUD is poised to benefit from any deepening hopes that a Chinese and global growth recovery are afoot.
CAD – USDCAD wilting into the first downside pivot area at 1.3300 – the US yield direction we discuss above and the USD status after tomorrow’s US event risks the next test for the pair.
NZD – the kiwi rather firmly under the Aussie’s thumb as AUDNZD may have turned the corner for the cycle. NZDUSD, meanwhile, eyeing the range lows and 200-day moving average in the 0.6725 area ahead of the week’s key USD-linked event risks tomorrow.
SEK – we’ll say it again – EURSEK should be lower given the backdrop – is the market simply not paying attention or is there opportunity here? A close below 10.40 needed to set the ball in motion.
NOK – ditto SEK comments, particularly given the move in Brent crude above 70 dollars/barrel. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
1000 – US Mar. NFIB Small Business Optimism
1300 – Mexico Mar. CPI
2100 – US Fed’s Quarles (Voter) to speak
2245 – US Fed’s Clarida (Voter) to speak